Macroeconomic information, structural change, and the prediction of fiscal aggregates

Previous research on the prediction of fiscal aggregates has shown evidence that simple autoregressive models often provide better forecasts of fiscal variables than multivariate specifications. We argue that the multivariate models considered by previous studies are small-scale, probably burdened by overparameterization, and not robust to structural changes. Bayesian Vector Autoregressions (BVARs), on the other hand, allow the information contained in a large data set to be summarized efficiently, and can also allow for time variation in both the coefficients and the volatilities. In this paper we explore the performance of BVARs with constant and drifting coefficients for forecasting key fiscal variables such as government revenues, expenditures, and interest payments on the outstanding debt. We focus on both point and density forecasting, as assessments of a country’s fiscal stability and overall credit risk should typically be based on the specification of a whole probability distribution for the future state of the economy. Using data from the US and the largest European countries, we show that both the adoption of a large system and the introduction of time variation help in forecasting, with the former playing a relatively more important role in point forecasting, and the latter being more important for density forecasting.

Qualified exceptionalism: the US Congress in comparative perspective

The framers of the American Constitution devised a singular bicameral legislative body, which invested substantial power in both a broadly representative lower chamber and a second "deliberative" chamber that was both insulated from the voters and unrepresentative of the population as a whole. Until the early 20th Century, the singular U.S. Congress changed little, but with growing national responsibilities, it sought to construct organizational forms that could address a consistently stronger executive. Since the 1980s, the Congress has relied increasingly on stronger parties to organize its activities. This development, embraced in turn by Democrats and Republicans, has led to changes that have edged the Congress in the direction of parliamentary democracies. We conclude this analysis has real, but limited utility, as congressional party leaders continue to barter for votes and, in the context, of narrow chamber majorities, often rely heavily on presidential assistance on divisive issues that are important to their party brand. Yet, the traditional features of the American separated system - bicameralism, the committee systems, and the centrifugal forces emanating from diverse congressional districts, increasingly complex policy issues, and the fear of electoral retribution - also remain strong, and effectively constrain the influence of leaders.'Qualified exceptionalism' thus most aptly describes the contemporary American Congress, which remains 'exceptional,' but less than unique, as it responds to many of the same forces, in some of the same ways (e.g., strong parties), as do many other representative assemblies around the world.

Securitisation law: EU and US disclosure regulations

Providing key guidance on the process of securitisation, this comprehensive title explains in detail exactly what practitioners need to know. Featuring the most up-to-date commentary, Securitisation Law and Practice cuts through this complicated process using practical aids such as flow charts and checklists. The book also contains discussion on the latest case law (including case studies) and critical legal issues. The book also features: (1) Analysis of the recent securities regulations regarding asset-backed securities disclosures in the US and EU, providing an understanding of the differences in regulatory reporting requirements between jurisdictions. (2) Discussion of the various types of asset-backed structures that have been created over the last 30 years. (3) Analysis of the major legal decisions in the US and EU regarding securitisation transactions, including such cases as Enron, Parmalat and the recent sub-prime problem.

Congressional acquiescence to presidentialism in the US ‘War on Terror’

Congressional dominance theory holds that not only can the US Congress control the executive, it does. The terrorist attacks on New York and Washington on 11 September 2001 and the Bush administration's ensuing global 'war on terror' suggest a different result. Bush's response to 9/11 signalled not only new directions in US foreign and domestic policy but a new stage in the aggrandisement of presidential power in the United States and a further step in the marginalisation of the Congress. Informed by a constitutional doctrine unknown to the framers of the US Constitution, the Bush administration pursued a presidentialist or 'ultra-separationist' governing strategy that was disrespectful to the legislature's intended role in the separated system. Using its unilateral powers, in public and in secret, claiming 'inherent' authority from the Constitution, and exploiting the public's fear of a further terrorist attack and of endangering the lives of US troops abroad, the administration skilfully drove its legislation through the Congress. Occasionally, the Congress was able to extract concessions - notably in the immediate aftermath of 9/11, when partisan control of the government was split - but more typically, for most of the period, the Congress acquiesced to administration demands, albeit with the consolation of minor concessions. The administration not only dominated the lawmaking process, it also cowed legislators into legitimating often highly controversial (and sometimes illegal) administration-determined definitions of counter-terrorism and national security policy. Certainly, the Congress undertook a considerable amount of oversight during the period of the 'war on terror'; lawmakers also complained. But the effects on policy were marginal. This finding held true for periods of Democratic as well as Republican majorities.

Patterns of cortisol and DHEA secretion and relationships with attachment style and psychosocial variables in female adolescents: a developmental psychopathology approach

This programme of research used a developmental psychopathology approach to investigate females across the adolescent period. A two-sided story is presented; first, a study of neuroendocrine and psychosocial parameters in a group of healthy female adolescents (N = 63), followed by a parallel study of female adolescents with anorexia nervosa (AN) (N = 8). A biopsychosocial, multi-method measurement approach was taken, which utilised self-report, interview and hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenocortical (HPA) axis measures. Saliva samples for the measurement of cortisol and DHEA were collected using the best-recommended methodology: multiple samples over the day, strict reference to time of awakening, and two consecutive sampling weekdays. The research was adolescent-orientated: specifically, by using creative and ageappropriate strategies to ensure participant adherence to protocol, as well as more generally by adopting various procedures to facilitate engagement with the research process. In the healthy females mean (± SD) age 13.9 (± 2.7) years, cortisol and DHEA secretion exhibited typical adult-like diurnal patterns. Developmental markers of chronological age, menarche status and body mass index (BMI) had differential associations with cortisol and DHEA secretory activity. The pattern of the cortisol awakening response (CAR) was sensitive to whether participants had experienced first menses, but not to chronological age or BMI. Those who were post-menarche generally reached their peak point of cortisol secretion at 45 minutes post-awakening, in contrast to the pre-menarche group who were more evenly spread. Subsequent daytime cortisol levels were also higher in post-menarche females, and this effect was also noted for increasing age and BMI. Both morning and evening DHEA were positively associated with developmental markers. None of the situational or self-report psychosocial variables that were measured modulated any of the key findings regarding cortisol and DHEA secretion. The healthy group of girls were within age-appropriate norms for all the self-report measures used, however just under half of this group were insecurely attached (as assessed by interview). Only attachment style was associated with neuroendocrine parameters. In particular, those with an anxious insecure style exhibited a higher awakening sample (levels were 7.16 nmol/l, 10.40 nmol/l and 7.93 nmol/l for secure, anxious and avoidant groups, respectively) and a flatter CAR (mean increases over the awakening period were 6.38 nmol/l, 2.32 nmol/l and 8.61 nmol/l for secure, anxious and avoidant groups, respectively). The afore-mentioned pattern is similar to that consistently associated with psychological disorder in adults, and so this may be a pre-clinical vulnerability factor for subsequent mental health problems. A group of females with AN, mean (± SD) age 15.1 (± 1.6) years, were recruited from a specialist residential clinic and compared to the above group of healthy control (HC) female adolescents. A general picture of cortisol and DHEA hypersecretion was revealed in those with AN. The mean (± SD) change exhibited in cortisol levels over the 30 minute post-awakening period was 7.05 nmol/l (± 5.99) and 8.33 nmol/l (± 6.41) for HC and AN groups, respectively. The mean (± SD) evening cortisol level for the HC girls was 1.95 nmol/l (± 2.11), in comparison to 6.42 nmol/l (± 11.10) for the AN group. Mean (± SD) morning DHEA concentrations were 1.47 nmol/l (± 0.85) and 2.25 nmol/l (± 0.88) for HC and AN groups, respectively. The HC group’s mean (± SD) concentration of 12 hour DHEA was 0.55 nmol/l (± 0.46) and the AN group’s mean level was 0.89 nmol/l (± 0.90). This adrenal steroid hypersecretion evidenced by the AN group was not associated with BMI or eating disorder symptomatology. Insecure attachment characterised by fearfulness and anger was most apparent; a style which was unparalleled in the healthy group of female adolescents. The causal directions of the AN group findings remain unclear. Examining some of the participants with AN as case studies one year post-discharge from the clinic illustrated that for one participant who was recovered, in terms of returning to ordinary school life and no longer exhibiting clinical levels of eating disorder symptomatology, her CARs were no longer inconsistent over sampling days and her DHEA levels were also now generally comparable to the healthy control group. For another participant who had not recovered from her AN one year later, the profile of her CAR continued to be inconsistent over sampling days and her DHEA concentrations over the diurnal period were significantly higher in comparison to the healthy control group. In its entirety, this work’s unique contribution lies in its consideration of methodological and developmental issues specifically pertaining to adolescents. Findings also contribute to knowledge of AN and understanding of vulnerability factors, and how these may be used to develop interventions dedicated to improving adolescent health.