Trophic Level Asynchrony in Rates of Phenological Change For Marine, Freshwater and Terrestrial Environments

Recent changes in the seasonal timing (phenology) of familiar biological events have been one of the most conspicuous signs of climate change. However, the lack of a standardised approach to analysing change has hampered assessment of consistency in such changes among different taxa and trophic levels and across freshwater, terrestrial and marine environments. We present a standardised assessment of 25 532 rates of phenological change for 726 UK terrestrial, freshwater and marine taxa. The majority of spring and summer events have advanced, and more rapidly than previously documented. Such consistency is indicative of shared large-scale drivers. Furthermore, average rates of change have accelerated in a way that is consistent with observed warming trends. Less coherent patterns in some groups of organisms point to the agency of more local scale processes and multiple drivers. For the first time we show a broad scale signal of differential phenological change among trophic levels; across environments advances in timing were slowest for secondary consumers, thus heightening the potential risk of temporal mismatch in key trophic interactions. If current patterns and rates of phenological change are indicative of future trends, future climate warming may exacerbate trophic mismatching, further disrupting the functioning, persistence and resilience of many ecosystems and having a major impact on ecosystem services

Seasonal Variation in Diurnal Atmospheric Grass Pollen Concentration Profiles

In this study, the diurnal atmospheric grass pollen concentration profile within the Danish city of Aarhus was shown to change in a systematic manner as the pollen season progressed. Although diurnal grass pollen profiles can differ greatly from day-to-day, it is common practice to establish the time of day when peak concentrations are most likely to occur using seasonally averaged diurnal profiles. Atmospheric pollen loads are highly dependent upon emissions, and different species of grass are known to flower and emit pollen at different times of the day and during different periods of the pollen season. Pollen concentrations are also influenced by meteorological factors – directly through those parameters that govern pollen dispersion and transport, and indirectly through the weather-driven flowering process. We found that three different profiles dominated the grass pollen season in Aarhus – a twin peak profile during the early season, a single evening profile during the middle of the season, and a single midday peak during the late season. Whilst this variation could not be explained by meteorological factors, no inconsistencies were found with the theory that it was driven by a succession of different grass species with different diurnal flowering patterns dominating atmospheric pollen loads as the season progressed. The potential for exposure was found to be significantly greater during the late-season period than during either the early- or mid-season periods.

Farmers' Resilience to Climate Change in the Welsh Marshes

Climate change will exacerbate challenges facing food security in the UK. Increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events will further impact upon farm systems. At the heart of the impending challenges to UK agricultural production, farmers’ resilience will be tested to new limits. Research into farmers’ resilience to climate change in the UK is distinctly underdeveloped when compared to research in developing and other developed nations. This research gap is addressed through exploration of farmers’ resilience in the Welsh Marches, establishing the role of risk perceptions, local knowledge and adaptive capacity in farmers’ decision-making to limit climate shocks. Further contributions to agricultural geography are made through experimentation of a ‘cultural-behavioural approach’, seeking to revisit the behavioural approach in view of the cultural-turn. The Welsh Marches, situated on the English-Welsh border, has been selected as a focal point due to its agricultural diversity, and known experiences of extreme weather events. A phased mixed methodological approach is adopted. Phase one explores recorded and reported experiences of past extreme weather events in local meteorological records and local newspaper articles. Phase two consists of 115 survey-questionnaires, 15 in-depth semi-structured interviews, and a scenario based focus group with selected farmers from the Welsh Marches. This allows farmers’ resilience to climate change in the past, present and future to be explored. Original contributions to knowledge are made through demonstrating the value of focusing upon the culture of a specific farm community, applying a ‘bottom-up’ approach. The priority given to the weather in farmers’ decision-making is identified to be determined by individual relationships that farmers’ develop with the weather. Yet, a consensus of farmers’ observations has established recognition of considerable changes in the weather over the last 30 years, acknowledging more extremes and seasonal variations. In contrast, perceptions of future climate change are largely varied. Farmers are found to be disengaged with the communication of climate change science, as the global impacts portrayed are distant in time and place from probable impacts that may be experienced locally. Current communication of climate change information has been identified to alienate farmers from the local reality of probable future impacts. Adaptation options and responses to extreme weather and climate change are identified from measures found to be already implemented and considered for the future. A greater need to explore local knowledge and risk perception in relation to farmers’ understanding of future climate challenges is clear. There is a need to conduct comparable research in different farm communities across the UK. Progression into establishing the role of farmers’ resilience in responding effectively to future climate challenges has only just begun.