A DST-based Approach for Construction Project Risk Analysis

Despite its huge potential in risk analysis, the Dempster–Shafer Theory of Evidence (DST) has not received enough attention in construction management. This paper presents a DST-based approach for structuring personal experience and professional judgment when assessing construction project risk. DST was innovatively used to tackle the problem of lacking sufficient information through enabling analysts to provide incomplete assessments. Risk cost is used as a common scale for measuring risk impact on the various project objectives, and the Evidential Reasoning algorithm is suggested as a novel alternative for aggregating individual assessments. A spreadsheet-based decision support system (DSS) was devised to facilitate the proposed approach. Four case studies were conducted to examine the approach's viability. Senior managers in four British construction companies tried the DSS and gave very promising feedback. The paper concludes that the proposed methodology may contribute to bridging the gap between theory and practice of construction risk assessment.

Identifying Risk Factors for Postpartum Mood Episodes in Bipolar Disorder – A UK Prospective Study

Background and Aims: Women with bipolar disorder are vulnerable to episodes postpartum, but risk factors are poorly understood. We are exploring risk factors for postpartum mood episodes in women with bipolar disorder using a prospective longitudinal design. Methods: Pregnant women with lifetime DSM-IV bipolar disorder are being recruited into the Bipolar Disorder Research Network (www.BDRN.org). Baseline assessments during late pregnancy include lifetime psychopathology and potential risk factors for perinatal episodes such as medication use, sleep, obstetric factors, and psychosocial factors. Blood samples are taken for genetic analysis. Perinatal psychopathology is assessed via follow-up interview at 12-weeks postpartum. Interview data are supplemented by clinician questionnaires and case-note review. Potential risk factors will be compared between women who experience perinatal episodes and those who remain well. Results: 80 participants have been recruited to date. 32/61 (52%) women had a perinatal recurrence by follow-up. 16 (26%) had onset in pregnancy. 21 (34%) had postpartum onset, 19 (90%) within 6-weeks of delivery: 11 (18%) postpartum psychosis, 5 (8%) postpartum hypomania, 5 (8%) postpartum depression. Postpartum relapse was more frequent in women with bipolar-I than bipolar-II disorder (45% vs 17%). 62% women with postpartum relapse took prophylactic medication peripartum and almost all received care from secondary psychiatric services (95%). Conclusions: Rate of postpartum relapse is high, despite most women receiving specialist care and medication perinatally. A larger sample size will allow us to examine potential risk factors for postpartum episodes, which will assist in providing accurate and personalised advice to women with bipolar disorder who are considering pregnancy.