A Parameter Estimation and Identifiability Analysis Methodology Applied to a Street Canyon Air Pollution Model

Mathematical models are increasingly used in environmental science thus increasing the importance of uncertainty and sensitivity analyses. In the present study, an iterative parameter estimation and identifiability analysis methodology is applied to an atmospheric model – the Operational Street Pollution Model (OSPMr). To assess the predictive validity of the model, the data is split into an estimation and a prediction data set using two data splitting approaches and data preparation techniques (clustering and outlier detection) are analysed. The sensitivity analysis, being part of the identifiability analysis, showed that some model parameters were significantly more sensitive than others. The application of the determined optimal parameter values was shown to succesfully equilibrate the model biases among the individual streets and species. It was as well shown that the frequentist approach applied for the uncertainty calculations underestimated the parameter uncertainties. The model parameter uncertainty was qualitatively assessed to be significant, and reduction strategies were identified.

Affective Instability, Childhood Trauma and Major Affective Disorders

Background and Aims Affective instability (AI), childhood trauma, and mental illness are linked, but evidence in affective disorders is limited, despite both AI and childhood trauma being associated with poorer outcomes. Aims were to compare AI levels in bipolar disorder I (BPI) and II (BPII), and major depressive disorder recurrent (MDDR), and to examine the association of AI and childhood trauma within each diagnostic group. Methods AI, measured using the Affective Lability Scale (ALS), was compared between people with DSM-IV BPI (n = 923), BPII (n = 363) and MDDR (n = 207) accounting for confounders and current mood. Regression modelling was used to examine the association between AI and childhood traumas in each diagnostic group. Results ALS scores in descending order were BPII, BPI, MDDR, and differences between groups were significant (p < 0.05). Within the BPI group any childhood abuse (p = 0.021), childhood physical abuse (p = 0.003) and the death of a close friend in childhood (p = 0.002) were significantly associated with higher ALS score but no association was found between childhood trauma and AI in BPII and MDDR. Conclusions AI is an important dimension in bipolar disorder independent of current mood state. There is a strong link between childhood traumatic events and AI levels in BPI and this may be one way in which exposure and disorder are linked. Clinical interventions targeting AI in people who have suffered significant childhood trauma could potentially change the clinical course of bipolar disorder.