Long-term and Short-term Forecast Models for Poaceae (Grass) Pollen in Poznan, Poland, Constructed Using Regression Analysis

Airborne concentrations of Poaceae pollen have been monitored in Poznań for more than ten years and the length of the dataset is now considered sufficient for statistical analysis. The objective of this paper is to produce long-range forecasts that predict certain characteristics of the grass pollen season (such as the start, peak and end dates of the grass pollen season) as well as short-term forecasts that predict daily variations in grass pollen counts for the next day or next few days throughout the main grass pollen season. The method of forecasting was regression analysis. Correlation analysis was used to examine the relationship between grass pollen counts and the factors that affect its production, release and dispersal. The models were constructed with data from 1994-2004 and tested on data from 2005 and 2006. The forecast models predicted the start of the grass pollen season to within 2 days and achieved 61% and 70% accuracy on a scale of 1-4 when forecasting variations in daily grass pollen counts in 2005 and 2006 respectively. This study has emphasised how important the weather during the few weeks or months preceding pollination is to grass pollen production, and draws attention to the importance of considering large-scale patterns of climate variability (indices of the North Atlantic Oscillation) when constructing forecast models for allergenic pollen.

A Mechanism For Long Distance Transport of Ambrosia Pollen From the Pannonian Plain

The pollen grains of ragweed are important aeroallergens that have the potential to be transported longdistances through the air. The arrival of ragweed pollen in Nordic countries from the Pannonian Plain canoccur when certain conditions are met, which this study aims to describe for the first time. Atmosphericragweed pollen concentrations were collected at 16 pollen-monitoring sites. Other factors included inthe analysis were the overall synoptic weather situation, surface wind speeds, wind direction and tem-peratures as well as examining regional scale orography and satellite observations. Hot and dry weatherin source areas on the Pannonian Plain aid the release of ragweed pollen during the flowering seasonand result in the deep Planetary Boundary Layers needed to lift the pollen over the Carpathian Moun-tains to the north. Suitable synoptic conditions are also required for the pollen bearing air masses tomove northward. These same conditions produce the jet-effect Kosava and orographic foehn winds thataid the release and dispersal of ragweed pollen and contribute towards its movement into Poland andbeyond.