2 resultados para asymptotic normality
em Worcester Research and Publications - Worcester Research and Publications - UK
Resumo:
In light of heightened interest in the response of pollen phenology to temperature, we investigated recent changes to the onset of Betula (birch) pollen seasons in central and southern England, including a test of predicted advancement of the Betula pollen season for London. We calculated onset of birch pollen seasons using daily airborne pollen data obtained at London, Plymouth and Worcester, determined trends in the start of the pollen season and compared timing of the birch pollen season with observed temperature patterns for the period 1995–2010. We found no overall change in the onset of birch pollen in the study period although there was evidence that the response to temperature was nonlinear and that a lower asymptotic start of the pollen season may exist. The start of the birch pollen season was strongly correlated with March mean temperature. These results reinforce previous findings showing that the timing of the birch pollen season in the UK is particularly sensitive to spring temperatures. The climate relationship shown here persists over both longer decadal-scale trends and shorter, seasonal trends as well as during periods of ‘sign-switching’ when cooler spring temperatures result in later start dates. These attributes, combined with the wide geographical coverage of airborne pollen monitoring sites, some with records extending back several decades, provide a powerful tool for the detection of climate change impacts, although local site factors and the requirement for winter chilling may be confounding factors.
Resumo:
The impact of climate change on fungal growth and spore production is less well documented than for allergenic pollen grains, although similar implications for respiratory tract diseases in humans occur. Fungal spores are commonly described as either “dry” or “wet” according to the type of weather associated with their occurrence in the air. This study examined the distribution of selected fungal spores (Alternaria spp., Cladosporium spp., Didymella spp., Epicoccum spp., Leptosphaeria spp. and rusts) occurring in the West Midlands of UK during 2 years of contrasting weather. Spore specimens were collected using a 7-day volumetric air sampler and then analysed with the aid of light microscopy. Distributions of spores were then studied using normality tests and Mann–Whitney U test, while relationships with meteorological parameters were investigated using Spearman’s rank test and angular-linear correlation for wind direction analysis. Our results showed that so-called wet spores were more sensitive to the weather changes showing statistically significant differences between the 2 years of study, in contrast to “dry” spores. We predict that in following years we will observe accelerated levels in allergenic fungal spore production as well as changes in species diversity. This study could be a starting point to revise the grouping system of fungal spores as either “dry” or “wet” types and their response to climate change