A 30-Day-Ahead Forecast Model for Grass Pollen in North London, United Kingdom

A 30-day ahead forecast method has been developed for grass pollen at north London. The total period of the grass pollen season is covered by eight multiple regression models, each covering a 10-day period running consecutively from 21st May to 8th August. This means that three models were used for each 30-day forecast. The forecast models were produced using grass pollen and environmental data from 1961-1999 and tested on data from 2000 and 2002. Model accuracy was judged in two ways: the number of times the forecast model was able to successfully predict the severity (relative to the 1961-1999 dataset as a whole) of grass pollen counts in each of the eight forecast periods on a scale of one to four; and the number of times the forecast model was able to predict whether grass pollen counts were higher or lower than the mean. The models achieved 62.5% accuracy in both assessment years when predicting the relative severity of grass pollen counts on a scale of one to four, which equates to six of the eight 10-day periods being forecast correctly. The models attained 87.5% and 100% accuracy in 2000 and 2002 respectively when predicting whether grass pollen counts would be higher or lower than the mean. Attempting to predict pollen counts during distinct 10-day periods throughout the grass pollen season is a novel approach. The models also employed original methodology in the use of winter averages of the North Atlantic Oscillation to forecast 10-day means of allergenic pollen counts.

The Professionalisation of Non-Denominational Religious Education in England: Politics, Organisation and Knowledge

In response to contemporary concerns, and using neglected primary sources, this article explores the professionalisation of teachers of Religious Education (RI/RE) in non-denominational, state-maintained schools in England. It does so from the launch of Religion in Education (1934) and the Institute for Christian Education at Home and Abroad (1935) to the founding of the Religious Education Council of England and Wales (1973) and the British Journal of Religious Education (1978). Professionalisation is defined as a collective historical process in terms of three inter-related concepts: (1) professional self-organisation and professional politics, (2) professional knowledge, and (3) initial and continuing professional development. The article sketches the history of non-denominational religious education prior to the focus period, to contextualise the emergence of the professionalising processes under scrutiny. Professional self-organisation and professional politics are explored by reconstructing the origins and history of the Institute of Christian Education at Home and Abroad, which became the principal body offering professional development provision for RI/RE teachers for some fifty years. Professional knowledge is discussed in relation to the content of Religion in Education which was oriented around Christian Idealism and interdenominational networking. Changes in journal name in the 1960s and 1970s reflected uncertainties about the orientation of the subject and shifts in understanding over the nature and character of professional knowledge. The article also explores a particular case of resistance, in the late 1960s, to the prevailing consensus surrounding the nature and purpose of RI/RE, and the representativeness and authority of the pre-eminent professional body of the time. In conclusion, the article examines some implications which may be drawn from this history for the prospects and problems of the professionalisation of RE today.