Constructing a 7-day Ahead Forecast Model for Grass Pollen at North London, United Kingdom

A number of media outlets now issue medium-range (~7 day) weather forecasts on a regular basis. It is therefore logical that aerobiologists should attempt to produce medium-range forecasts for allergenic pollen that cover the same time period as the weather forecasts. The objective of this study is to construct a medium-range (< 7 day) forecast model for grass pollen at north London. The forecast models were produced using regression analysis based on grass pollen and meteorological data from 1990-1999 and tested on data from 2000 and 2002. The modelling process was improved by dividing the grass pollen season into three periods; the pre-peak, peak and post peak periods of grass pollen release. The forecast consisted of five regression models. Two simple linear regression models predicting the start and end date of the peak period, and three multiple regression models forecasting daily average grass pollen counts in the pre-peak, peak and post-peak periods. Overall the forecast models achieved 62% accuracy in 2000 and 47% in 2002, reflecting the fact that the 2002 grass pollen season was of a higher magnitude than any of the other seasons included in the analysis. This study has the potential to make a notable contribution to the field of aerobiology. Winter averages of the North Atlantic Oscillation were used to predict certain characteristics of the grass pollen season, which presents an important advance in aerobiological work. The ability to predict allergenic pollen counts for a period between five and seven days will benefit allergy sufferers. Furthermore, medium-range forecasts for allergenic pollen will be of assistance to the medical profession, including allergists planning treatment and physicians scheduling clinical trials.

Defrauding Daughters Turning Deviant Wives? Reading Female Agency in The Merchant of Venice

Brabantio’s words “Look to her, Moor, if thou hast eyes to see:| She has deceived her father, and may thee” ( Othello , 1.3.292–293) warn Othello about the changing nature of female lo yalty and women’s potential for deviancy. Closely examining d aughters caught in the conflict between anxious fathers and husbands-to- be, this article departs from such paranoid male fa ntasy and instead sets out to explore female deviancy in its legal and dramatic implications with reference to Shakespeare ’s The Merchant of Venice . I will argue that Portia’s and Jessica’s struggle to evade male subsidiarity results in their conscio us positioning themselves on the verge of illegality. Besides occa sioning productive exploration of marriage, law and justice within what Morss (2007:183) terms “the dynamics of human desir e and of social institutions,” I argue that female agency, s een as temporary deviancy and/or self-exclusion, reconfigures the ma le domain by affording the inclusion of previous outsiders (Anto nio, Bassanio and Lorenzo) .