Long-term and Short-term Forecast Models for Poaceae (Grass) Pollen in Poznan, Poland, Constructed Using Regression Analysis

Airborne concentrations of Poaceae pollen have been monitored in Poznań for more than ten years and the length of the dataset is now considered sufficient for statistical analysis. The objective of this paper is to produce long-range forecasts that predict certain characteristics of the grass pollen season (such as the start, peak and end dates of the grass pollen season) as well as short-term forecasts that predict daily variations in grass pollen counts for the next day or next few days throughout the main grass pollen season. The method of forecasting was regression analysis. Correlation analysis was used to examine the relationship between grass pollen counts and the factors that affect its production, release and dispersal. The models were constructed with data from 1994-2004 and tested on data from 2005 and 2006. The forecast models predicted the start of the grass pollen season to within 2 days and achieved 61% and 70% accuracy on a scale of 1-4 when forecasting variations in daily grass pollen counts in 2005 and 2006 respectively. This study has emphasised how important the weather during the few weeks or months preceding pollination is to grass pollen production, and draws attention to the importance of considering large-scale patterns of climate variability (indices of the North Atlantic Oscillation) when constructing forecast models for allergenic pollen.

Unlocking Characteristics of Outstanding Leadership in Schools and Colleges in England

The workshop will invite participants to engage in a discussion of the characteristics of outstanding leadership by taking part in an interactive activity which we have developed and used in different types of schools and colleges in England. The activity uses Q-methodology to develop and refine characteristics of outstanding leaders and outstanding leadership in education from a range of stakeholder perspectives. Q-methodology is a research method which originates from psychology and is used to study people's subjective viewpoints. We are applying the methodology to the study of enacted leadership practice in different educational contexts. Our sample of stakeholders consists of school and college leaders, governors, middle leaders, teachers, teacher educators, researchers and scholars in educational leadership and management research and practice. The range of contexts in which they work represents different age phases of education; primary, secondary and further education colleges, urban and rural schools and colleges and selective and non-selective schools. In the workshop participants will be invited to take part in the Q-sort activity we have used with in our research, using statements from leadership theory and practice. The Q-sort will be followed by discussion and reflection on the statements in relation to participants’ own experiences of leadership, management and governance in different contexts.