3 resultados para Univariate Analysis box-jenkins methodology

em Worcester Research and Publications - Worcester Research and Publications - UK


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Background The study being undertaken builds on earlier work that found general practitioners (GPs) were at times uncertain of their role in paediatric palliative care and questioned whether their involvement had been beneficial to the child and family. The rarity of childhood cancer makes it difficult for GPs to develop or maintain palliative care knowledge and skills yet the GP is perceived by the family as the gatekeeper of care within the community. Aim The study is examining GPs perception of their role in caring for an individual child with cancer receiving palliative care and comparing this with families' perceptions of their GP's roles. Methodology The methodology incorporates tape-recorded semi-structured interviews, thematic framework analysis and Q methodology (QM) to capture the experiences of GPs who have cared for a child with cancer receiving palliative care as well as the perspectives of care experienced by the families. The semi-structured interview sample comprises 10 families (parents/guardians) whose child has been treated at a regional childhood cancer centre and their GPs. A further 40–60 GPs will be involved in the QM. Findings Findings detailing GP experiences from the initial study along with the preliminary findings of the semi-structured interviews with parents and GPs will be presented. Papers' contribution The results will identify and clarify GPs perceptions of their roles, and what families perceive their GPs role to be, enabling development of strategies to support GPs roles. It is anticipated that findings will inform the wider field of palliative care generally and the practice of both hospital and community paediatricians.

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The presentation describes the researcher’s experience of undertaking sensitive interviews. Background The interviews form part of a current study that is examining bereaved parents’ experience of caring for their child at home as well as the experience of their GP. This study builds on earlier work that found general practitioners (GPs) were at times uncertain of their role in paediatric palliative care and questioned whether their involvement had been beneficial to the child and family. The rarity of childhood cancer deaths makes it difficult for GPs to develop or maintain palliative care knowledge and skills yet the GP is perceived as the gatekeeper for care within the community. Presentation aim To describe the process of both the preparation for, and undertaking of, sensitive interviews. Study methodology The methodology incorporates tape-recorded semi-structured interviews, thematic framework analysis and Q methodology (QM). QM will be used to capture the experiences of GPs who have cared for a child with cancer receiving palliative care as well the perspectives of care experienced by the families. The semi-structured interview sample comprises 10 families (parents/guardians) whose child has been treated at a regional childhood cancer centre and their GPs. A further 40-60 GPs will be involved in the QM. Findings The preparation for these interviews will be discussed and compared to the supportive bereavement visits undertaken within the researcher’s role as a paediatric Macmillan nurse. The experience of undertaking the interviews will be exemplified with findings from the initial and the current, study. Papers’ contribution The researcher’s experience of preparing for and undertaking sensitive interviews may prove beneficial to other researchers.

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Mathematical models are increasingly used in environmental science thus increasing the importance of uncertainty and sensitivity analyses. In the present study, an iterative parameter estimation and identifiability analysis methodology is applied to an atmospheric model – the Operational Street Pollution Model (OSPMr). To assess the predictive validity of the model, the data is split into an estimation and a prediction data set using two data splitting approaches and data preparation techniques (clustering and outlier detection) are analysed. The sensitivity analysis, being part of the identifiability analysis, showed that some model parameters were significantly more sensitive than others. The application of the determined optimal parameter values was shown to succesfully equilibrate the model biases among the individual streets and species. It was as well shown that the frequentist approach applied for the uncertainty calculations underestimated the parameter uncertainties. The model parameter uncertainty was qualitatively assessed to be significant, and reduction strategies were identified.