A Parameter Estimation and Identifiability Analysis Methodology Applied to a Street Canyon Air Pollution Model

Mathematical models are increasingly used in environmental science thus increasing the importance of uncertainty and sensitivity analyses. In the present study, an iterative parameter estimation and identifiability analysis methodology is applied to an atmospheric model – the Operational Street Pollution Model (OSPMr). To assess the predictive validity of the model, the data is split into an estimation and a prediction data set using two data splitting approaches and data preparation techniques (clustering and outlier detection) are analysed. The sensitivity analysis, being part of the identifiability analysis, showed that some model parameters were significantly more sensitive than others. The application of the determined optimal parameter values was shown to succesfully equilibrate the model biases among the individual streets and species. It was as well shown that the frequentist approach applied for the uncertainty calculations underestimated the parameter uncertainties. The model parameter uncertainty was qualitatively assessed to be significant, and reduction strategies were identified.

Intimate Partner Violence and Pregnancy Intentions: A Qualitative Study

Aim and Objective In this qualitative study we explored women’s pregnancy intentions and experiences of intimate partner violence before, during and after pregnancy. Background Unintended pregnancies in the context of intimate partner violence can have serious health, social and economic consequences for women and their children. Design Feminist and phenomenological philosophies underpinned the study to gain a richer understanding of women’s experiences. Methods Eleven women who had been pregnant in the previous two years were recruited from community-based women’s refuges in one region of the United Kingdom. Of the eleven women, eight had unplanned pregnancies, two reported being coerced into early motherhood, and only one woman had purposively planned her pregnancy. Multiple in-depth interviews focused on participants’ accounts of living with intimate partner violence. Experiential data analysis was used to identify, analyse and highlight themes. Results Three major themes were identified: men’s control of contraception, partner’s indiscriminate response to the pregnancy, and women’s mixed feelings about the pregnancy. Participants reported limited influence over their sexual relationship and Accepted Article This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. birth control. Feelings of vulnerability about themselves and fear for their unborn babies’ safety were intensified by their partners’ continued violence during pregnancy. Conclusion Women experiencing intimate partner violence were more likely to have an unintended pregnancy. This could be attributed to male dominance and fear, which impacts on a woman’s ability to manage her birth control options. The women’s initial excitement about their pregnancy diminished in the face of uncertainty and ongoing violence within their relationship. Relevance to clinical practice Women experiencing violence lack choice in relation to birth control options leading to unintended pregnancies. Interpreting the findings from the victim-perpetrator interactive spin theory of intimate partner violence provides a possible framework for midwives and nurses to better understand and respond to women’s experiences of violence during pregnancy.