Long-term and Short-term Forecast Models for Poaceae (Grass) Pollen in Poznan, Poland, Constructed Using Regression Analysis

Airborne concentrations of Poaceae pollen have been monitored in Poznań for more than ten years and the length of the dataset is now considered sufficient for statistical analysis. The objective of this paper is to produce long-range forecasts that predict certain characteristics of the grass pollen season (such as the start, peak and end dates of the grass pollen season) as well as short-term forecasts that predict daily variations in grass pollen counts for the next day or next few days throughout the main grass pollen season. The method of forecasting was regression analysis. Correlation analysis was used to examine the relationship between grass pollen counts and the factors that affect its production, release and dispersal. The models were constructed with data from 1994-2004 and tested on data from 2005 and 2006. The forecast models predicted the start of the grass pollen season to within 2 days and achieved 61% and 70% accuracy on a scale of 1-4 when forecasting variations in daily grass pollen counts in 2005 and 2006 respectively. This study has emphasised how important the weather during the few weeks or months preceding pollination is to grass pollen production, and draws attention to the importance of considering large-scale patterns of climate variability (indices of the North Atlantic Oscillation) when constructing forecast models for allergenic pollen.

Factors Involved in the Phenological Mechanism of Alnus Flowering in Central Europe

The objectives of this paper are to ascertain the main factors involved in the phenological mechanism of alder flowering in Central Europe by understanding the in - fluence of the main meteorological parameters, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) effect and the study of the Chill and Heat requirements to overcome dormancy. Airborne pollen (1995–2007) was collected in Poznań (Poland) by means a volumetric spore trap. Temperatures for February, and January and February averages of the NAO are generally key factors affecting the timing of the alder pollen seasons. Chilling accumulation (which started in Poznań at the beginning of November, while the end took place during the month of January) of 985 CH with a threshold temperature of -0.25ºC, followed by 118 GDDºC with a threshold temperature of 0.5ºC, were necessary to overcome dormancy and produce the onset of flowering. The calculated dormancy requirements, mean tem - peratures of the four decades of the year, and January and February average NAO index recorded during the period before flowering, were used to construct linear and multiple regression models in order to forecast the start date of the alder pollen seasons Its ac - curacy was tested using data from 2007, and the difference between the predicted and observed dates ranged from 3–7 days

Atmospheric Concentrations of Alternaria, Cladosporium, Ganoderma and Didymella Spores Monitored in Cork (Ireland) and Worcester (England) During the Summer of 2010

This study represents the first international intercomparison of fungal spore observations since 1990, focusing on atmospheric concentrations of Alternaria, Cladosporium, Ganoderma and Didymella spores. The campaigns were performed at sites located in Cork (Ireland) and Worcester (England) during summer 2010. Observations were made using Hirst-type volumetric spore traps and corresponding optical identification at the genus level by microscope. The measurements at both sites (including meteorological parameters) were compared and contrasted. The relationships between the fungal spore concentrations with selected meteorological parameters were investigated using statistical methods and multivariate regression trees (MRT). The results showed high correlations between the two sites with respect to daily variations. Statistically significant higher spore concentrations for Alternaria, Cladosporium and Ganoderma were monitored at the Worcester site. This result was most likely due to the differences in precipitation and local fungal spore sources at the two sites. Alternaria and Cladosporium reached their maxima a month earlier in Cork than in Worcester, and Didymella with Ganoderma peaked simultaneously with similar diurnal trends found for all the investigated spore types. MRT analysis helped to determine threshold values of the meteorological parameters that exerted most influence on the presence of spores: they were found to vary at the two sites. Our results suggest that the aeromycological profile is quite uniform over the British Isles, but a description of bioaerosols with respect to overall load and daily concentration can be quite diverse although the geographical difference between sites is relatively small. These variations in the concentrations therefore need to be explored at the national level

A Community-Level, Mesoscale Analysis of Fish Assemblage Structure in Shoreline Habitats of a Large River Using Multivariate Regression Trees.

The mesoscale (100–102 m) of river habitats has been identified as the scale that simultaneously offers insights into ecological structure and falls within the practical bounds of river management. Mesoscale habitat (mesohabitat) classifications for relatively large rivers, however, are underdeveloped compared with those produced for smaller streams. Approaches to habitat modelling have traditionally focused on individual species or proceeded on a species-by-species basis. This is particularly problematic in larger rivers where the effects of biological interactions are more complex and intense. Community-level approaches can rapidly model many species simultaneously, thereby integrating the effects of biological interactions while providing information on the relative importance of environmental variables in structuring the community. One such community-level approach, multivariate regression trees, was applied in order to determine the relative influences of abiotic factors on fish assemblages within shoreline mesohabitats of San Pedro River, Chile, and to define reference communities prior to the planned construction of a hydroelectric power plant. Flow depth, bank materials and the availability of riparian and instream cover, including woody debris, were the main variables driving differences between the assemblages. Species strongly indicative of distinctive mesohabitat types included the endemic Galaxias platei. Among other outcomes, the results provide information on the impact of non-native salmonids on river-dwelling Galaxias platei, suggesting a degree of habitat segregation between these taxa based on flow depth. The results support the use of the mesohabitat concept in large, relatively pristine river systems, and they represent a basis for assessing the impact of any future hydroelectric power plant construction and operation. By combing community classifications with simple sets of environmental rules, the multivariate regression trees produced can be used to predict the community structure of any mesohabitat along the reach.