The Day Roads Became Rivers: A GIS-Based Assessment of Flash Floods in Worcester

In the last 4 years Worcester, UK has been hit by several intense convective rainstorms, which caused flash floods outside of existing surface drainage networks. This paper addresses two questions related to such events: Firstly to what extent can the occurrence of flash flood flow accumulation can be determined using only commonly available data and tools, assuming the rainfall events caused mainly surface runoff due to their tropical intensity and the relatively impermeable urban catchment surface? Secondly, are the flood in-cidents in Worcester aggravated by roads serving as preferential flow paths under these conditions? The as-sessment results indicated that roads do not have an influence on the flow path of flash flood rainfall in Worcester. Flow accumulation calculated with a 10m DEM, corresponds well with reported flood incidents. This basic assessment method can be used to inform the implementation of non structural flood mitigation and public awareness.

A 30-Day-Ahead Forecast Model for Grass Pollen in North London, United Kingdom

A 30-day ahead forecast method has been developed for grass pollen at north London. The total period of the grass pollen season is covered by eight multiple regression models, each covering a 10-day period running consecutively from 21st May to 8th August. This means that three models were used for each 30-day forecast. The forecast models were produced using grass pollen and environmental data from 1961-1999 and tested on data from 2000 and 2002. Model accuracy was judged in two ways: the number of times the forecast model was able to successfully predict the severity (relative to the 1961-1999 dataset as a whole) of grass pollen counts in each of the eight forecast periods on a scale of one to four; and the number of times the forecast model was able to predict whether grass pollen counts were higher or lower than the mean. The models achieved 62.5% accuracy in both assessment years when predicting the relative severity of grass pollen counts on a scale of one to four, which equates to six of the eight 10-day periods being forecast correctly. The models attained 87.5% and 100% accuracy in 2000 and 2002 respectively when predicting whether grass pollen counts would be higher or lower than the mean. Attempting to predict pollen counts during distinct 10-day periods throughout the grass pollen season is a novel approach. The models also employed original methodology in the use of winter averages of the North Atlantic Oscillation to forecast 10-day means of allergenic pollen counts.

Constructing a 7-day Ahead Forecast Model for Grass Pollen at North London, United Kingdom

A number of media outlets now issue medium-range (~7 day) weather forecasts on a regular basis. It is therefore logical that aerobiologists should attempt to produce medium-range forecasts for allergenic pollen that cover the same time period as the weather forecasts. The objective of this study is to construct a medium-range (< 7 day) forecast model for grass pollen at north London. The forecast models were produced using regression analysis based on grass pollen and meteorological data from 1990-1999 and tested on data from 2000 and 2002. The modelling process was improved by dividing the grass pollen season into three periods; the pre-peak, peak and post peak periods of grass pollen release. The forecast consisted of five regression models. Two simple linear regression models predicting the start and end date of the peak period, and three multiple regression models forecasting daily average grass pollen counts in the pre-peak, peak and post-peak periods. Overall the forecast models achieved 62% accuracy in 2000 and 47% in 2002, reflecting the fact that the 2002 grass pollen season was of a higher magnitude than any of the other seasons included in the analysis. This study has the potential to make a notable contribution to the field of aerobiology. Winter averages of the North Atlantic Oscillation were used to predict certain characteristics of the grass pollen season, which presents an important advance in aerobiological work. The ability to predict allergenic pollen counts for a period between five and seven days will benefit allergy sufferers. Furthermore, medium-range forecasts for allergenic pollen will be of assistance to the medical profession, including allergists planning treatment and physicians scheduling clinical trials.

Stories and Statistics: Describing a Mixed Method Study of Effective Classroom Practice

The Effective Classroom Practice project aimed to identify key factors that contribute to effective teaching in primary and secondary phases of schooling in different socioeconomic contexts. This article addresses the ways in which qualitative and quantitative approaches were combined within an integrated design to provide a comprehensive methodology for the research purposes. Strategies for the study are discussed, followed by the challenges of combining complex statistics with individual stories, particularly in relation to the ongoing iteration between these different data sets, and issues of validity and reliability. The findings shed new light on the meanings and measurement of teachers’ effective classroom practice and the complex nature of, and relationships with, professional life phase, teacher identities, and school context.

The Personal and Professional Selves of Teachers: Stable and Unstable Identities

In much educational literature it is recognised that the broader social conditions in which teachers live and work, and the personal and professional elements of teachers' lives, experiences, beliefs and practices are integral to one another, and that there are often tensions between these which impact to a greater or lesser extent upon teachers' sense of self or identity. If identity is a key influencing factor on teachers' sense of purpose, self‐efficacy, motivation, commitment, job satisfaction and effectiveness, then investigation of those factors which influence positively and negatively, the contexts in which these occur and the consequences for practice, is essential. Surprisingly, although notions of ‘self’ and personal identity are much used in educational research and theory, critical engagement with individual teachers' cognitive and emotional ‘selves’ has been relatively rare. Yet such engagement is important to all with an interest in raising and sustaining standards of teaching, particularly in centralist reform contexts which threaten to destabilise long‐held beliefs and practices. This article addresses the issue of teacher identities by drawing together research which examines the nature of the relationships between social structures and individual agency; between notions of a socially constructed, and therefore contingent and ever‐remade, ‘self’, and a ‘self’ with dispositions, attitudes and behavioural responses which are durable and relatively stable; and between cognitive and emotional identities. Drawing upon existing research literature and findings from a four‐year Department for Education and Skills funded project with 300 teachers in 100 schools which investigated variations in teachers' work and lives and their effects on pupils (VITAE), it finds that identities are neither intrinsically stable nor intrinsically fragmented, as earlier literature suggests. Rather, teacher identities may be more, or less, stable and more or less fragmented at different times and in different ways according to a number of life, career and situational factors.

Variations in the Work and Lives of Teachers: Relative and Relational Effectiveness

The VITAE project is a four‐year (2001–2005) research study, commissioned by the Department for Education and Skills, conducted with 300 teachers in 100 schools in seven local education authorities in England. The project aimed to identify factors that may affect their work and lives over time and how these factors may, in turn, impact on their teaching and subsequent pupil progress and outcomes. It combined quantitative and qualitative methods of data collection and analysis in order to define and examine notions of teachers' relational and relative effectiveness. The first part of the paper addresses the nature of effectiveness and three key themes relating to the changing contexts of teachers' work, lives and effectiveness: the challenge of reform to notions of professionalism; professional identities; changes in teachers' work and lives. The research design and early findings and their effects upon the development of the research form the second part. The final part of the paper discusses three sets of understandings which are fundamental to any consideration of teachers' work, lives and effectiveness: relative and relational effectiveness; teacher identities; teachers' life and work contexts. The research suggests that policy‐makers, school leaders and teachers themselves need to attend to these if teacher recruitment, retention and standards are to improve.

Relative Efficiencies of the Burkard 7-Day, Rotorod and Burkard Personal Samplers for Poaceae and Urticaceae Pollen under Field Conditions

Introduction: In aerobiological studies it is often necessary to compare concentration data recorded with different models of sampling instrument. Sampler efficiency typically varies from device to device, and depends on the target aerosol and local atmospheric conditions. To account for these differences inter-sampler correction factors may be applied, however for many pollen samplers and pollen taxa such correction factors do not exist and cannot be derived from existing published work. Materials and methods: In this study the relative efficiencies of the Burkard 7-Day Recording Volumetric Spore Trap, the Sampling Technologies Rotorod Model 20 and the Burkard Personal Volumetric Air Sampler were evaluated for Urticaceae and Poaceae pollen under field conditions, and the influence of wind speed and relative humidity on these efficiency relationships was assessed. Data for the two pollen taxa were collected during 2010 and 2011-12 respectively. Results: The three devices were found to record significantly different concentrations for both pollen taxa, with the exception of the 7-Day and Rotorod samplers for Poaceae pollen. Under the range of conditions present during the study wind speed was found to only have a significant impact on inter-sampler relationships involving the vertically orientated Burkard Personal sampler, whilst no interaction between relative efficiency and relative humidity was observed. Conclusions: Data collected with the three models of sampler should only be compared once the appropriate correction has been made, with wind speed taken into account where appropriate.

Determination of Alternaria spp. Habitats Using 7-Day Volumetric Spore Trap, Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory Model and Geographic Information System

There are many species among the Alternaria genus, which hosts on economically important crops causing significant yield losses. Less attention has been paid to fungi hosting on plants constituting substantial components of pastures and meadows. Alternaria spp. spores are also recognised as important allergens. A 7-day volumetric spore trap was used to monitor the concentration of airborne fungal spores. Air samples were collected in Worcester, England (2006–2010). Days with a high spore count were then selected. The longest episode that occurred within a five year study was chosen for modelling. Two source maps presenting distribution of crops under rotation and pastures in the UK were produced. Back trajectories were calculated using the HYSPLIT model. In ArcGIS clusters of trajectories were studied in connection with source maps by including the height above ground level and the speed of the air masses. During the episode no evidence for a long distance transport from the continent of Alternaria spp. spores was detected. The overall direction of the air masses fell within the range from South-West to North. The back trajectories indicated that the most important sources of Alternaria spp. spores were located in the West Midlands of England.