2 resultados para TIDAL RANGE

em Worcester Research and Publications - Worcester Research and Publications - UK


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Background Birch pollen is highly allergic and has the potential for episodically long range transport. Such episodes will in general occur out of the main pollen season. During that time allergy patients are unprotected and high pollen concentrations will therefore have a full allergenic impact. Objective To show that Denmark obtains significant quantities of birch pollen from Poland or Germany before the local trees start to flower. Methods Simultaneous observations of pollen concentrations and phenology in the potential source area in Poland as well as in Denmark were performed in 2006. The Danish pollen records from 2000-2006 were analysed for possible long range transport episodes and analysed with trajectories in combination with a birch tree source map. Results In 2006 high pollen concentrations were observed in Denmark with bi-hourly concentrations above 500 grains/ m3 before the local trees began to flower. Poland was identified as a source region. The analysis of the historical pollen record from Copenhagen shows significant pre-seasonal pollen episodes almost every year from 2000-2006. In all episodes trajectory analysis identified Germany or Poland as source regions. Conclusion Denmark obtains significant pre-seasonal quantities of birch pollen from either Poland or Germany almost every year. Forecasting of birch pollen quantities relevant to allergy patients must therefore take into account long-range transport. This cannot be based on measured concentrations in Denmark. The most effective way to improve the current Danish pollen forecasts is to extend the current forecasts with atmospheric transport models that take into account pollen emission and transport from countries such as Germany and Poland. Unless long range transport is taken into account pre-seasonal pollen episodes will have a full allergic impact, as the allergy patients in general will be unprotected during that time.

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The long-range transport of Ambrosia pollen to Poland is intermittent and mainly related to the passage of air masses over the Carpathian and Sudetes mountains. These episodes are associated with hot dry weather, a deep Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) in the source areas and winds from the south. Such episodes can transport significant amounts of Ambrosia pollen into Poland. The study investigates Ambrosia pollen episodes at eight sites in Poland during the period 7th to 10th September 2005, by examining temporal variations in Ambrosia pollen and back-trajectories. PBL depths in the likely source areas were calculated with the Eta meteorological model and evaluated against the mountain heights. Considerable amounts of Ambrosia pollen were recorded at several monitoring sites during the night or early in the morning of the investigated period. Trajectory analyses shows that the air masses arriving at the Polish sites predominantly came from the south, and were in the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Hungary the previous day indicating these countries as potential source areas. We have shown the progress of Ambrosia plumes into Poland from the south of the country, probably from Slovakia and Hungary, and demonstrated how Lagrangian back-trajectory models and meteorological models can be used to identify possible transport mechanisms of Ambrosia pollen from potential source regions.