Long-term and Short-term Forecast Models for Poaceae (Grass) Pollen in Poznan, Poland, Constructed Using Regression Analysis

Airborne concentrations of Poaceae pollen have been monitored in Poznań for more than ten years and the length of the dataset is now considered sufficient for statistical analysis. The objective of this paper is to produce long-range forecasts that predict certain characteristics of the grass pollen season (such as the start, peak and end dates of the grass pollen season) as well as short-term forecasts that predict daily variations in grass pollen counts for the next day or next few days throughout the main grass pollen season. The method of forecasting was regression analysis. Correlation analysis was used to examine the relationship between grass pollen counts and the factors that affect its production, release and dispersal. The models were constructed with data from 1994-2004 and tested on data from 2005 and 2006. The forecast models predicted the start of the grass pollen season to within 2 days and achieved 61% and 70% accuracy on a scale of 1-4 when forecasting variations in daily grass pollen counts in 2005 and 2006 respectively. This study has emphasised how important the weather during the few weeks or months preceding pollination is to grass pollen production, and draws attention to the importance of considering large-scale patterns of climate variability (indices of the North Atlantic Oscillation) when constructing forecast models for allergenic pollen.

An Analysis of Local Wind and Air Mass Directions and Their Impact on Cladosporium Distribution Using HYSPLIT and Circular Statistics

Ecological studies that examine species-environment relationships are often limited to several meteorological parameters, i.e. mean air temperature, relative humidity, precipitation, vapour pressure deficit and solar radiation. The impact of local wind, its speed and direction are less commonly investigated in aerobiological surveys mainly due to difficulties related to the employment of specific analytical tools and interpretation of their outputs. Identification of inoculum sources of economically important plant pathogens, as well as highly allergenic bioaerosols like Cladosporium species, has not been yet explored with remote sensing data and atmospheric models such as Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT). We, therefore, performed an analysis of 24 h intra-diurnal cycle of Cladosporium spp. spores from an urban site in connection with both the local wind direction and overall air mass direction computed by HYSPLIT. The observational method was a volumetric air sampler of the Hirst design with 1 h time resolution and corresponding optical detection of fungal spores with light microscopy. The atmospheric modelling was done using the on-line data set from GDAS with 1° resolution and circular statistical methods. Our results showed stronger, statistically significant correlation (p ≤ 0.05) between high Cladosporium spp. spore concentration and air mass direction compared to the local wind direction. This suggested that a large fraction of the investigated fungal spores had a regional origin and must be located more than a few kilometers away from the sampling point.