Long-term and Short-term Forecast Models for Poaceae (Grass) Pollen in Poznan, Poland, Constructed Using Regression Analysis

Airborne concentrations of Poaceae pollen have been monitored in Poznań for more than ten years and the length of the dataset is now considered sufficient for statistical analysis. The objective of this paper is to produce long-range forecasts that predict certain characteristics of the grass pollen season (such as the start, peak and end dates of the grass pollen season) as well as short-term forecasts that predict daily variations in grass pollen counts for the next day or next few days throughout the main grass pollen season. The method of forecasting was regression analysis. Correlation analysis was used to examine the relationship between grass pollen counts and the factors that affect its production, release and dispersal. The models were constructed with data from 1994-2004 and tested on data from 2005 and 2006. The forecast models predicted the start of the grass pollen season to within 2 days and achieved 61% and 70% accuracy on a scale of 1-4 when forecasting variations in daily grass pollen counts in 2005 and 2006 respectively. This study has emphasised how important the weather during the few weeks or months preceding pollination is to grass pollen production, and draws attention to the importance of considering large-scale patterns of climate variability (indices of the North Atlantic Oscillation) when constructing forecast models for allergenic pollen.

Understanding the Needs of People with Dementia and Family Carers

This is the first in a short series that presents case study examples of the positive work achieved by trusts who participated in the Royal College of Nursing's development programme to improve dementia care in acute hospitals. When a person with dementia is in hospital, poor understanding of individual needs and preferences can contribute to a lack of person-centred care. Similarly, the needs of family carers can often be overlooked and staff do not always appreciate these needs at such a stressful time. This article illustrates how three NHS trusts have addressed these issues. To help staff get to know patients with dementia, Salford Royal NHS Foundation Trust has implemented a patient passport. Similarly, The Shrewsbury and Telford Hospital NHS Trust has implemented a carer passport that overcomes the restrictions imposed by hospital visiting hours. Royal Devon and Exeter NHS Foundation Trust also focused on carers, holding a workshop to elicit feedback on what was important to them. This was a useful means of engaging with carers and helped staff to realise that even simple changes can have a significant effect.