A Parameter Estimation and Identifiability Analysis Methodology Applied to a Street Canyon Air Pollution Model

Mathematical models are increasingly used in environmental science thus increasing the importance of uncertainty and sensitivity analyses. In the present study, an iterative parameter estimation and identifiability analysis methodology is applied to an atmospheric model – the Operational Street Pollution Model (OSPMr). To assess the predictive validity of the model, the data is split into an estimation and a prediction data set using two data splitting approaches and data preparation techniques (clustering and outlier detection) are analysed. The sensitivity analysis, being part of the identifiability analysis, showed that some model parameters were significantly more sensitive than others. The application of the determined optimal parameter values was shown to succesfully equilibrate the model biases among the individual streets and species. It was as well shown that the frequentist approach applied for the uncertainty calculations underestimated the parameter uncertainties. The model parameter uncertainty was qualitatively assessed to be significant, and reduction strategies were identified.

Nonlinear Dynamics Near the Cell Membrane of Chara Corallina

The phenomenon of patterned distribution of pH near the cell membrane of the algae Chara corallina upon illumination is well-known. In this paper, we develop a mathematical model, based on the detailed kinetic analysis of proton fluxes across the cell membrane, to explain this phenomenon. The model yields two coupled nonlinear partial differential equations which describe the spatial dynamics of proton concentration changes and transmembrane potential generation. The experimental observation of pH pattern formation, its period and amplitude of oscillation, and also its hysteresis in response to changing illumination, are all reproduced by our model. A comparison of experimental results and predictions of our theory is made. Finally, a mechanism for pattern formation in Chara corallina is proposed.