Constructing a 7-day Ahead Forecast Model for Grass Pollen at North London, United Kingdom

A number of media outlets now issue medium-range (~7 day) weather forecasts on a regular basis. It is therefore logical that aerobiologists should attempt to produce medium-range forecasts for allergenic pollen that cover the same time period as the weather forecasts. The objective of this study is to construct a medium-range (< 7 day) forecast model for grass pollen at north London. The forecast models were produced using regression analysis based on grass pollen and meteorological data from 1990-1999 and tested on data from 2000 and 2002. The modelling process was improved by dividing the grass pollen season into three periods; the pre-peak, peak and post peak periods of grass pollen release. The forecast consisted of five regression models. Two simple linear regression models predicting the start and end date of the peak period, and three multiple regression models forecasting daily average grass pollen counts in the pre-peak, peak and post-peak periods. Overall the forecast models achieved 62% accuracy in 2000 and 47% in 2002, reflecting the fact that the 2002 grass pollen season was of a higher magnitude than any of the other seasons included in the analysis. This study has the potential to make a notable contribution to the field of aerobiology. Winter averages of the North Atlantic Oscillation were used to predict certain characteristics of the grass pollen season, which presents an important advance in aerobiological work. The ability to predict allergenic pollen counts for a period between five and seven days will benefit allergy sufferers. Furthermore, medium-range forecasts for allergenic pollen will be of assistance to the medical profession, including allergists planning treatment and physicians scheduling clinical trials.

Effects of Social Media Platform Preference: a Country Comparison of Online University Reputations

Managing an online reputation is critical to higher education. Universities cannot afford to lose enrolment numbers by neglecting to monitor, control, promote and enhance their online presence. It is critical that universities measure their social media reputation scores and presence on the web, as well as those of their competitors. Universities need to continuously review their social engagement strategy and online reputation to ensure they maximize all opportunities to maintain, and improve student enrolment and retention. Universities have embraced social media to enhance their brand reputation. This study examines the use of social media and its effects from a global perspective. It analysed 90 universities in three geographical areas to assess the impact and level of online social media, especially as it relates to “university brand reputation.” Results of the study indicated there was a wide variation among the three geographical regions, and within countries in the three geographical regions. Use of social media communication tools such as Twitter and Google+ by active users also varied widely depending upon country and region.

Tropes and Trench Cakes: The Home Front in the Media and Community History

The recent WW1 'fest' has provided a multitude of different engagements with the history of this conflict by media and community groups. The relationship between these histories and academic history is not unproblematic. It provides space for a greater emphasis on the home front but there are questions to be asked about the politics and the accuracy of such history. It is up to academics to find ways of working with popular histories which ensure that troublesome knowledge of the conflict continues to be explored.