Application of WRF-Chem to Forecasting PM10 Concentration over Poland

The meteorological and chemical transport model WRF-Chem was implemented to forecast PM10 concentrations over Poland. WRF-Chem version 3.5 was configured with three one way nested domains using the GFS meteorological data and the TNO MACC II emissions. Forecasts, with 48h lead time, were run for a winter and summer period 2014. WRF-Chem in general captures the variability in observed PM10 concentrations, but underestimates some peak concentrations during winter-time. The peaks coincide with either stable atmospheric condition during nighttime in the lower part of the planetary boundary layer or on days with very low surface temperatures. Such episodes lead to increased combustion in residential heating, where hard coal is the main fuel in Poland. This suggests that a key to improvement in the model performance for the peak concentrations is to focus on the simulation of PBL processes and the distribution of emissions with high resolution in WRF-Chem.

Application of WRF-Chem to Forecasting PM10 Concentration Over Poland

The meteorological and chemical transport model WRF-Chem was implemented to forecast PM10 concentrations over Poland. WRF-Chem version 3.5 was configured with three one-way nested domains using the GFS meteorological data and the TNO MACC II emissions. The 48 hour forecasts were run for each day of the winter and summer period of 2014 and there is only a small decrease in model performance for winter with respect to forecast lead time. The model in general captures the variability in observed PM10 concentrations for most of the stations. However, for some locations and specific episodes, the model performance is poor and the results cannot yet be used by official authorities. We argue that a higher resolution sector-based emission data will be helpful for this analysis in connection with a focus on planetary boundary layer processes in WRF-Chem and their impact on the initial distribution of emissions on both time and space.

Application of the WRF-Chem Model for a High Ozone Episode in SW Poland – Preliminary Results

The Weather Research and Forecasting model, integrated online with chemistry module, is a multi-scale model suitable for both research and operational forecasts of meteorology and air quality. It is used by many institutions for a variety of applications. In this study, the WRF v3.5 with chemistry (WRF-Chem) is applied to the area of Poland, for a period of 3-20 July 2006, when high concentrations of ground level ozone were observed. The meteorological and chemistry simulations were initiated with ERA-Interim reanalysis and TNO MACC II emissions database, respectively. The model physical parameterization includes RRTM shortwave radiation, Kain-Fritsch cumulus scheme, Purdue Lin microphysics and ACM2 PBL, established previously as the optimal configuration. Chemical mechanism used for the study was RADM2 with MADE/SORGAM aerosols. Simulations were performed for three one-way nested domains covering Europe (36 km x 36 km), Central Europe (12 km x 12 km) and Poland (4 km x 4 km). The results from the innermost domain were analyzed and compared to measurements of ozone concentration at three stations in different environments. The results show underestimation of observed values and daily amplitude of ozone concentrations.

Can the Revised UK Code Direct Practice?

The Nursing and Midwifery Council, the United Kingdom regulator of nursing and midwifery has recently revised its professional code of practice. This paper begins by arguing that a professional code must be capable of sustaining close reading and of action guidance. Using four exemplar clauses it is argued that the new revised code does not met this purpose. First, I show that in setting out requirements for consent and documentation, the meaning of the relevant clause has changed significantly during the editing process so that a literal reading of the final document bears little relation to established professional practice. Second, I argue that the clause concerning the nature of professional relationships has also been altered during the editing process so that it is inconsistent with other professional groups and established accounts of the professional nurse-patient relationship. Third, I argue that the clause concerning disclosure of confidential information, which survived revision and editing with its meaning intact is nevertheless factually incorrect and inconsistent with UK law and authoritative guidance. Finally, fourth, I argue that use of the word ‘inappropriate’ is inappropriate as it amounts to meaningless circularity, discussed in relation to a clause on expressing personal beliefs. Taken together, these examples demonstrate that the Code is seriously flawed and does not fulfil its purpose. One way that simple prescriptive clauses in the Code can be usefully understood is through the provision of detailed guidance. I argue that the NMC has changed its position on its view of the value of guidance and has significantly reduced the amount of written guidance and advice is provides. The paper concludes by arguing that in order to meet its action directing function, further clarifying revision and the provision of detailed guidance is required.

Affective Instability, Childhood Trauma and Major Affective Disorders

BACKGROUND: Affective instability (AI), childhood trauma, and mental illness are linked, but evidence in affective disorders is limited, despite both AI and childhood trauma being associated with poorer outcomes. Aims were to compare AI levels in bipolar disorder I (BPI) and II (BPII), and major depressive disorder recurrent (MDDR), and to examine the association of AI and childhood trauma within each diagnostic group. METHODS: AI, measured using the Affective Lability Scale (ALS), was compared between people with DSM-IV BPI (n=923), BPII (n=363) and MDDR (n=207) accounting for confounders and current mood. Regression modelling was used to examine the association between AI and childhood traumas in each diagnostic group. RESULTS: ALS scores in descending order were BPII, BPI, MDDR, and differences between groups were significant (p<0.05). Within the BPI group any childhood abuse (p=0.021), childhood physical abuse (p=0.003) and the death of a close friend in childhood (p=0.002) were significantly associated with higher ALS score but no association was found between childhood trauma and AI in BPII and MDDR. LIMITATIONS: The ALS is a self-report scale and is subject to retrospective recall bias. CONCLUSIONS: AI is an important dimension in bipolar disorder independent of current mood state. There is a strong link between childhood traumatic events and AI levels in BPI and this may be one way in which exposure and disorder are linked. Clinical interventions targeting AI in people who have suffered significant childhood trauma could potentially change the clinical course of bipolar disorder.