Forecasting Methodologies for Ganoderma Spore Concentration Using Combined Statistical Approaches and Model Evaluations

High concentration levels of Ganoderma spp. spores were observed in Worcester, UK, during 2006–2010.These basidiospores are known to cause sensitization due to the allergen content and their small dimensions. This enables them to penetrate the lower part of the respiratory tract in humans. Establishment of a link between occurring symptoms of sensitization to Ganoderma spp. and other basidiospores is challenging due to lack of information regarding spore concentration in the air. Hence, aerobiological monitoring should be conducted, and if possible extended with the construction of forecast models. Daily mean concentration of allergenic Ganoderma spp. spores in the atmosphere of Worcester was measured using 7-day volumetric spore sampler through five consecutive years. The relationships between the presence of spores in the air and the weather parameters were examined. Forecast models were constructed for Ganoderma spp. spores using advanced statistical techniques, i.e. multivariate regression trees and artificial neural networks. Dew point temperature along with maximumtemperature was the most important factor influencing the presence of spores in the air of Worcester. Based on these two major factors and several others of lesser importance, thresholds for certain levels of fungal spore concentration, i.e. low (0–49 s m−3), moderate(50–99 s m−3), high (100–149 s m−3) and very high (150deviation in results obtained by artificial neural networks, authors have achieved a forecasting model, which was accurate (correlation between observed and predicted values varied from rs=0.57 to rs=0.68).

Comparison of Group-based Outpatient Physiotherapy With Usual Care After Total Knee Replacement: a Feasibility Study For a Randomized Controlled Trial

Objective: To evaluate the feasibility of conducting a randomized controlled trial comparing group-based outpatient physiotherapy with usual care in patients following total knee replacement. Design: A feasibility study for a randomized controlled trial. Setting: One secondary-care hospital orthopaedic centre, Bristol, UK. Participants: A total of 46 participants undergoing primary total knee replacement. Interventions: The intervention group were offered six group-based exercise sessions after surgery. The usual care group received standard postoperative care. Participants were not blinded to group allocation. Outcome measures: Feasibility was assessed by recruitment, reasons for non-participation, attendance, and completion rates of study questionnaires that included the Lower Extremity Functional Scale and Knee Injury and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score. Results: Recruitment rate was 37%. Five patients withdrew or were no longer eligible to participate. Intervention attendance was high (73%) and 84% of group participants reported they were ‘very satisfied’ with the exercises. Return of study questionnaires at six months was lower in the usual care (75%) than in the intervention group (100%). Mean (standard deviation) Lower Extremity Functional Scale scores at six months were 45.0 (20.8) in the usual care and 57.8 (15.2) in the intervention groups. Conclusion: Recruitment and retention of participants in this feasibility study was good. Group-based physiotherapy was acceptable to participants. Questionnaire return rates were lower in the usual care group, but might be enhanced by telephone follow-up. The Lower Extremity Functional Scale had high responsiveness and completion rates. Using this outcome measure, 256 participants would be required in a full-scale randomized controlled trial.