Modelling Atmospheric Concentrations of Ragweed Pollen From Local and Distant Sources

Pollen grains from the genus ragweed (Ambrosia spp.) are important aeroallergens. In Europe, the largest sources of atmospheric ragweed pollen are the Rhône Valley (France), parts of Northern Italy, the Pannonian Plain and Ukraine. Episodes of Long Distance Transport (LDT) of ragweed pollen from these centres can cover large parts of Europe and are predominantly studied using receptor based models (Smith et al., (2013) and references therein). The clinical impact of allergenic ragweed pollen arriving from distant sources remains unclear (Cecchi et al. 2010). Although a recent study has found the major allergens of ragweed in air samples collected in Poznań, Poland, during episodes of long-distance transport from the Pannonian Plain (Grewling et al. 2013). The source orientated models SILAM, DEHM, COSMO-Art, METRAS and ENVIRO-HIRLAM currently report having the capability of modelling atmospheric concentrations of pollen in Europe. The performance of such source-orientated models is strongly dependent on the quality of the emissions data, which is a focus of current research (e.g. Thibaudon et al. (2014)). The output from these models are important for warning allergy sufferers in areas polluted by ragweed, but could also be used to warn the public of ragweed pollen being transported into areas where the plant is not abundant. Areas outside of the main areas of ragweed infection that contain considerable local populations must, however, also include local scale models. These models can be used to predict local concentrations, even when LDT is not present. This concept of combined LDT and local scale calculations has been shown to be work for air pollutants and is considered usable for urban scale calculations of aeroallergens once urban scale maps of aeroallergen sources have been produced.

Italian Ragweed Pollen Inventory

This study provides the first spatially detailed and complete inventory of Ambrosia pollen sources in Italy – the third largest centre of ragweed in Europe. The inventory relies on a well tested top-down approach that combines local knowledge, detailed land cover, pollen observations and a digital elevation model that assumes permanent ragweed populations mainly grow below 745m. The pollen data were obtained from 92 volumetric pollen traps located throughout Italy during 2004-2013. Land cover is derived from Corine Land cover information with 100m resolution. The digital elevation model is based on the NASA shuttle radar mission with 90m resolution. The inventory is produced using a combination of ArcGIS and Python for automation and validated using cross-correlation and has a final resolution of 5km x 5km. The method includes a harmonization of the inventory with other European inventories for the Pannonian Plain, France and Austria in order to provide a coherent picture of all major ragweed sources. The results show that the mean annual pollen index varies from 0 in South Italy to 6779 in the Po Valley. The results also show that very large pollen indexes are observed in the Milan region, but this region has smaller amounts of ragweed habitats compared to other parts of the Po Valley and known ragweed areas in France and the Pannonian Plain. A significant decrease in Ambrosia pollen concentrations was recorded in 2013 by pollen monitoring stations located in the Po Valley, particularly in the Northwest of Milan. This was the same year as the appearance of the Ophraella communa leaf beetle in Northern Italy. These results suggest that ragweed habitats near to the Milan region have very high densities of Ambrosia plants compared to other known ragweed habitats in Europe. The Milan region therefore appears to contain habitats with the largest ragweed infestation in Europe, but a smaller amount of habitats is a likely cause the pollen index to be lower compared to central parts of the Pannonian Plain. A low number of densely packed habitats may have increased the impact of the Ophraella beetle and might account for the documented decrease in airborne Ambrosia pollen levels, an event that cannot be explained by meteorology alone. Further investigations that model atmospheric pollen before and after the appearance of the beetle in this part of Northern Italy are needed to assess the influence of the beetle on airborne Ambrosia pollen concentrations. Future work will focus on short distance transport episodes for stations located in the Po Valley, and long distance transport events for stations in Central Italy that exhibit peaks in daily airborne Ambrosia pollen levels.