Factors that Determine the Severity of Betula spp. Pollen Seasons in Poland (Poznań and Krakow) and the United Kingdom (Worcester and London)

The aim of this paper is to analyse variations in the severity of Betula pollen seasons, particularly in relation to meteorological parameters at four sites, Poznań and Krakow in Poland and Worcester and London in the United Kingdom. Results show that there is a significant relationship between Betula pollen season severity and weather conditions in the year before pollination as well as conditions in the same year that pollen is released from the plant. Furthermore, it is likely that the magnitude of birch pollen seasons in Poznań, Worcester and London is linked in some way to different phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Significant positive relationships exist between birch pollen counts at Poznań and temperatures, rainfall and averages of the NAO in the year before pollination. An opposite relationship is evident at the two sites studied in the British Isles. There were significant positive correlations between the severity of birch pollen seasons recorded at Worcester and London and temperatures and averages of the NAO during the year of pollination, and negative correlations with similar variables from the previous year. In addition, Betula pollen seasons in Krakow do not appear to be influenced by the NAO, which is probably the result of Krakow having a more continental climate.

Are the Birch Trees in Southern England a Source of Betula Pollen for North London?

Birch pollen is highly allergenic. Knowledge of daily variations, atmospheric transport and source areas of birch pollen is important for exposure studies and for warnings to the public, especially for large cities such as London. Our results show that broad-leaved forests with high birch tree densities are located to the south and west of London. Bi-hourly Betula pollen concentrations for all the days included in the study, and for all available days with high birch pollen counts (daily average birch pollen counts >80 grains/m3), show that, on average, there is a peak between 1400 hours and 1600 hours. Back-trajectory analysis showed that, on days with high birch pollen counts (n=60), 80% of air masses arriving at the time of peak diurnal birch pollen count approached North London from the south in a 180 degree arc from due east to due west. Detailed investigations of three Betula pollen episodes, with distinctly different diurnal patterns compared to the mean daily cycle, were used to illustrate how night-time maxima (2200–0400 hours) in Betula pollen counts could be the result of transport from distant sources or long transport times caused by slow moving air masses. We conclude that the Betula pollen recorded in North London could originate from sources found to the west and south of the city and not just trees within London itself. Possible sources outside the city include Continental Europe and the Betula trees within the broad-leaved forests of Southern England.

A 30-Day-Ahead Forecast Model for Grass Pollen in North London, United Kingdom

A 30-day ahead forecast method has been developed for grass pollen at north London. The total period of the grass pollen season is covered by eight multiple regression models, each covering a 10-day period running consecutively from 21st May to 8th August. This means that three models were used for each 30-day forecast. The forecast models were produced using grass pollen and environmental data from 1961-1999 and tested on data from 2000 and 2002. Model accuracy was judged in two ways: the number of times the forecast model was able to successfully predict the severity (relative to the 1961-1999 dataset as a whole) of grass pollen counts in each of the eight forecast periods on a scale of one to four; and the number of times the forecast model was able to predict whether grass pollen counts were higher or lower than the mean. The models achieved 62.5% accuracy in both assessment years when predicting the relative severity of grass pollen counts on a scale of one to four, which equates to six of the eight 10-day periods being forecast correctly. The models attained 87.5% and 100% accuracy in 2000 and 2002 respectively when predicting whether grass pollen counts would be higher or lower than the mean. Attempting to predict pollen counts during distinct 10-day periods throughout the grass pollen season is a novel approach. The models also employed original methodology in the use of winter averages of the North Atlantic Oscillation to forecast 10-day means of allergenic pollen counts.

Developing and Delivering L&D Solutions for International Markets

In Chapter 8, ‘Developing and delivering L&D solutions for international markets’, Sa’ad Ali and I examine how different dynamics within and amongst countries can impact the development and delivery of L&D. We build upon the previous chapters, in particular Chapters 5 to 7 that discussed how L&D solutions may be developed in consideration of enhancing engagement, the digital world, and collective and social learning. In doing so, we examine how the effectiveness, and even appropriateness of the concepts discussed in these chapters, may be contingent on country-specific factors such as culture.

Unfolding the Archive (Group Exhibition)

Unfolding the Archive, an exhibition of new work by the international artists’ group Floating World, is the result of a collaboration between the National Irish Visual Arts Library (NIVAL) and the F.E. McWilliam Gallery & Studio in partnership with the NCAD Gallery at the National College of Art & Design. The exhibition takes its title from the tangible starting point for engagement with an archive – the simple act of unfolding – and the practice of appraisal, valuation and interpretation that is inherent in this process.