Constructing a 7-day Ahead Forecast Model for Grass Pollen at North London, United Kingdom

A number of media outlets now issue medium-range (~7 day) weather forecasts on a regular basis. It is therefore logical that aerobiologists should attempt to produce medium-range forecasts for allergenic pollen that cover the same time period as the weather forecasts. The objective of this study is to construct a medium-range (< 7 day) forecast model for grass pollen at north London. The forecast models were produced using regression analysis based on grass pollen and meteorological data from 1990-1999 and tested on data from 2000 and 2002. The modelling process was improved by dividing the grass pollen season into three periods; the pre-peak, peak and post peak periods of grass pollen release. The forecast consisted of five regression models. Two simple linear regression models predicting the start and end date of the peak period, and three multiple regression models forecasting daily average grass pollen counts in the pre-peak, peak and post-peak periods. Overall the forecast models achieved 62% accuracy in 2000 and 47% in 2002, reflecting the fact that the 2002 grass pollen season was of a higher magnitude than any of the other seasons included in the analysis. This study has the potential to make a notable contribution to the field of aerobiology. Winter averages of the North Atlantic Oscillation were used to predict certain characteristics of the grass pollen season, which presents an important advance in aerobiological work. The ability to predict allergenic pollen counts for a period between five and seven days will benefit allergy sufferers. Furthermore, medium-range forecasts for allergenic pollen will be of assistance to the medical profession, including allergists planning treatment and physicians scheduling clinical trials.

Validity and Test –retest Reliability of the TIVRE-Basket® Test for the Determination of Aerobic Power in Elite Male Basketball Players

The aims of this study were to 1) determine the relationship between performance on the court-based TIVRE-Basket® test and peak aerobic power determined from a criterion lab-based incremental treadmill test and 2) to examine the test-retest reliability of the TIVRE-Basket® test in elite male basketball players. To address aim 1, 36 elite male basketball players (age 25.2 + 4.7 years, weight 94.1 + 11.4 kg, height 195.83 + 9.6 cm) completed a graded treadmill exercise test and the TIVRE-Basket® within 72 hours. Mean distance recorded during the TIVRE-Basket® test was 4001.8 + 176.4m, and mean VO2 peak was 54.7 + 2.8 ml.kg.min-1, and the correlation between the two parameters was r=0.824 (P= <0.001). Linear regression analysis identified TIVRE-Basket® distance (m) as the only unique predictor of VO2 peak in a single variable plus constant model: VO2 peak = 2.595 + ((0.13* TIVRE-Basket® distance (m)). Performance on the TIVRE-Basket® test accounted for 67.8% of the variance in VO2 peak (t=8.466, P=<.001, 95% CI 0.01 - 0.016, SEE 1.61). To address aim 2, 20 male basketball players (age 26.7±4.2; height 1.94±0.92; weight 94.0±9.1) performed the TIVRE-Basket® test on two occasions. There was no significant difference in total distance covered between Trial 1 (4138.8 + 677.3m) and Trial 2 (4188.0 + 648.8m; t = 0.5798, P = 0.5688). Mean difference between trials was 49.2 + 399.5m, with an ICC of 0.85 suggesting a moderate level of reliability. Standardised TEM was 0.88%, representing a moderate degree of trial to trial error, and the CV was 6.3%. The TIVRE-Basket® test therefore represents a valid and moderately reliable court-based sport-specific test of aerobic power for use with individuals and teams of elite level male basketball players. Future research is required to ascertain its validity and reliability in other basketball populations e.g. across age groups, at different levels of competition, in females and in different forms of the game e.g. wheelchair basketball.