Acute Asthma Epidemics, Weather and Pollen in England, 1987-1994

Recent epidemics of acute asthma have caused speculation that, if their causes were known, early warnings might be feasible. In particular, some epidemics seemed to be associated with thunderstorms. We wondered what risk factors predicting epidemics could be identified. Daily asthma admissions counts during 1987-1994, for two age groups (0-14 yrs and > or = 15 yrs), were measured using the Hospital Episodes System (HES). Epidemics were defined as combinations of date, age group and English Regional Health Authority (RHA) with exceptionally high asthma admission counts compared to the predictions of a log-linear autoregression model. They were compared with control days 1 week before and afterwards, regarding seven meteorological variables and 5 day average pollen counts for four species. Fifty six asthma epidemics were identified. The mean density of sferics (lightning flashes), temperature and rainfall on epidemic days were greater than those on control days. High sferics densities were overrepresented in epidemics. Simultaneously high sferics and grass pollen further increased the probability of an epidemic, but only to 15% (95% confidence interval 2-45%). Two thirds of epidemics were not preceded by thunderstorms. Thunderstorms and high grass pollen levels precede asthma epidemics more often than expected by chance. However, most epidemics are not associated with thunderstorms or unusual weather conditions, and most thunderstorms, even following high grass pollen levels, do not precede epidemics. An early warning system based on the indicators examined here would, therefore, detect few epidemics and generate an unacceptably high rate of false alarms.

Panoramic Sea Happening (After Kantor): Video Installation

Panoramic Sea Happening (After Kantor) is a 7 minute durational film that reimagines part of Tadeusz Kantor's original sea happenings from 1967 in a landscape in which the sea has retreated. The conductor of Kantor’s original performance is replaced with a sound object cast adrift on a beach in Dungeness (UK). The object plays back the sound of the sea into the landscape, which was performed live and then filmed from three distinct angles. The first angle mimics the position of the conductor in Kantor’s original happening, facing outwards into the horizon of the beach and recalls the image in Kantor’s work of a human figure undertaking the absurd task of orchestrating the sound of a gigantic expanse of water. The second angle exposes the machine itself and the large cone that amplifies the sound, reinforcing the isolation of the object. The third angle reveals a decommissioned nuclear power station and sound objects used as a warning system for the power plant. Dungeness is a location where the sea has been retreating from the land, leaving traces of human activity through the disused boat winches, abandoned cabins and the decommissioned nuclear buildings. It is a place in which the footprint of the anthropocene is keenly felt. The sound object is intended to act as an anthropomorphic figure, ghosting the original conductor and offering the sound of the sea back into the landscape through a wide mouthpiece, echoing Kantor’s own load hailer in the original sequence of sea happenings. It speculates on Kantor's theory of the bio-object, which proposed a symbiotic relationship between the human and the nonhuman object in performance, as a possible instrument to access a form of geologic imagination. In this configuration, the human itself is absent, but is evoked through the objects left behind. The sound object, helpless in a red dingy, might be thought of as a co-conspirator with the viewer, enabling a looking back to the past in a landscape of an inevitable future. The work was originally commissioned by the University of Kent in collaboration with the Polish Cultural Institute for the Symposium Kantorbury Kantorbury in Canterbury (UK) to mark the 100 years since Tadeusz Kantor’s birth (15 - 19 September 2015). It should be projected and requires stereo speakers.