Acute Asthma Epidemics, Weather and Pollen in England, 1987-1994

Recent epidemics of acute asthma have caused speculation that, if their causes were known, early warnings might be feasible. In particular, some epidemics seemed to be associated with thunderstorms. We wondered what risk factors predicting epidemics could be identified. Daily asthma admissions counts during 1987-1994, for two age groups (0-14 yrs and > or = 15 yrs), were measured using the Hospital Episodes System (HES). Epidemics were defined as combinations of date, age group and English Regional Health Authority (RHA) with exceptionally high asthma admission counts compared to the predictions of a log-linear autoregression model. They were compared with control days 1 week before and afterwards, regarding seven meteorological variables and 5 day average pollen counts for four species. Fifty six asthma epidemics were identified. The mean density of sferics (lightning flashes), temperature and rainfall on epidemic days were greater than those on control days. High sferics densities were overrepresented in epidemics. Simultaneously high sferics and grass pollen further increased the probability of an epidemic, but only to 15% (95% confidence interval 2-45%). Two thirds of epidemics were not preceded by thunderstorms. Thunderstorms and high grass pollen levels precede asthma epidemics more often than expected by chance. However, most epidemics are not associated with thunderstorms or unusual weather conditions, and most thunderstorms, even following high grass pollen levels, do not precede epidemics. An early warning system based on the indicators examined here would, therefore, detect few epidemics and generate an unacceptably high rate of false alarms.

A Service Model For Delivering Care Closer to Home.

Upton Surgery (Worcestershire) has developed a flexible and responsive service model that facilitates multi-agency support for adult patients with complex care needs experiencing an acute health crisis. The purpose of this service is to provide appropriate interventions that avoid unnecessary hospital admissions or, alternatively, provide support to facilitate early discharge from secondary care. Key aspects of this service are the collaborative and proactive identification of patients at risk, rapid creation and deployment of a reactive multi-agency team and follow-up of patients with an appropriate long-term care plan. A small team of dedicated staff (the Complex Care Team) are pivotal to coordinating and delivering this service. Key skills are sophisticated leadership and project management skills, and these have been used sensitively to challenge some traditional roles and boundaries in the interests of providing effective, holistic care for the patient. This is a practical example of early implementation of the principles underlying the Department of Health’s (DH) recent Best Practice Guidance, ‘Delivering Care Closer to Home’ (DH, July 2008) and may provide useful learning points for other general practice surgeries considering implementing similar models. This integrated case management approach has had enthusiastic endorsement from patients and carers. In addition to the enhanced quality of care and experience for the patient, this approach has delivered value for money. Secondary care costs have been reduced by preventing admissions and also by reducing excess bed-days. The savings achieved have justified the ongoing commitment to the service and the staff employed in the Complex Care Team. The success of this service model has been endorsed recently by the ‘Customer Care’ award by ‘Management in Practice’. The Surgery was also awarded the ‘Practice of the Year’ award for this and a number of other customer-focussed projects.