A Parameter Estimation and Identifiability Analysis Methodology Applied to a Street Canyon Air Pollution Model

Mathematical models are increasingly used in environmental science thus increasing the importance of uncertainty and sensitivity analyses. In the present study, an iterative parameter estimation and identifiability analysis methodology is applied to an atmospheric model – the Operational Street Pollution Model (OSPMr). To assess the predictive validity of the model, the data is split into an estimation and a prediction data set using two data splitting approaches and data preparation techniques (clustering and outlier detection) are analysed. The sensitivity analysis, being part of the identifiability analysis, showed that some model parameters were significantly more sensitive than others. The application of the determined optimal parameter values was shown to succesfully equilibrate the model biases among the individual streets and species. It was as well shown that the frequentist approach applied for the uncertainty calculations underestimated the parameter uncertainties. The model parameter uncertainty was qualitatively assessed to be significant, and reduction strategies were identified.

Future Air Quality Related Health Effects in Europe and the Nordic Region—Sensitivity to Changes in Climate, Anthropogenic Emissions, Demography and Building Stock

Future changes in population exposures to ambient air pollution are inherently linked with long-term trends in outdoor air quality, but also with changes in the building stock. Moreover, the burden of disease is further driven by the ageing of the European populations. This study aims to assess the impact of changes in climate, emissions, building stocks and population on air pollution related human health impacts across Europe in the future. Therefore an integrated assessment model combining atmospheric models and health impacts has been setup for projections of the future developments in air pollution related premature mortality. The focus is here on the regional scale impacts of exposure to surface ozone (O3), Secondary Inorganic Aerosols (SIA) and primary particulate matter (PPM).

Examining Ambrosia Pollen Episodes at Poznań (Poland) Using Back-trajectory Analysis

The pollen grains of Ambrosia spp. are considered to be important aeroallergens in parts of southern and central Europe. Back-trajectories have been analysed with the aim of finding the likely sources of Ambrosia pollen grains that arrived at Poznań (Poland). Temporal variations in Ambrosia pollen at Poznań from 1995–2005 were examined in order to identify Ambrosia pollen episodes suitable for further investigation using back-trajectory analysis. The trajectories were calculated using the transport model within the Lagrangian air pollution model, ACDEP (Atmospheric Chemistry and Deposition). Analysis identified two separate populations in Ambrosia pollen episodes, those that peaked in the early morning between 4 a.m. and 8 a.m., and those that peaked in the afternoon between 2 p.m. and 6 p.m.. Six Ambrosia pollen episodes between 2001 and 2005 were examined using backtrajectory analysis. The results showed that Ambrosia pollen episodes that peaked in the early morning usually arrived at Poznań from a southerly direction after passing over southern Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Hungary, whereas air masses that brought Ambrosia pollen to Poznań during the afternoon arrived from a more easterly direction and predominantly stayed within the borders of Poland. Back-trajectory analysis has shown that there is a possibility that long-range transport brings Ambrosia pollen to Poznań from southern Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Hungary. There is also a likelihood that Ambrosia is present in Poland, as shown by the arrival of pollen during the afternoon that originated primarily from within the country.

Pollen Allergy in Cordoba City: Frequency of Sensitization and Relation with Antihistamine Sales

The occurrence of symptoms in pollen allergy patients in urban areas may be affected by local environmental factors such as sources of pollution, natural and ornamental vegetation, local architecture impeding dispersion, etc. The aim of this study was to analyse the frequency of sensitization in pollen allergy patients and the relationship with antihistamine sales. For this study, a large number of clinical records, together with pharmaceutical and pollen data, were collected between 1999 and 2001 in the city of Córdoba, in the south of the Iberian Peninsula. Differences were observed in the symptoms suffered by pollen allergy patients in different areas of the city due to varying local emission of both biological and non-biological particles. Temporal distribution of symptoms over the three study years was influenced by meteorological factors, especially rainfall patterns; higher water supply to plants was associated with increased airborne pollen concentrations. Air pollution might be one of the main factors affecting the distribution of pollen allergy patients within the city. Recent years have seen a worsening of symptoms and increased sensitization to urban species such as plane-trees.

Investigating Ambrosia Pollen Episodes in Poland Using Back-Trajectory Analysis

Background: The pollen grains of Ambrosia spp. are considered to be important aeroallergens. Previous studies have shown that the long-range transport of Ambrosia pollen to Poland is intermittent and mainly related to the passage of air masses over the Carpathian and Sudetes mountains from sources to the south, e.g. the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Hungary. In this study, Ambrosia pollen counts and back-trajectories from specific episodes in 1999 and 2002 have been analysed with the aim of identifying possible new sources of Ambrosia pollen arriving at three sites in Poland. Method: The combination of Ambrosia pollen measurements (daily average and bi-hourly concentrations) and air mass trajectory calculations were used to investigate two Ambrosia pollen episodes recorded at Rzeszow, Krakow and Poznań on the 4th and 5th September 1999 and 3rd September 2002. Ambrosia pollen counts were recorded by volumetric spore traps of the Hirst design. Trajectories were calculated using the transport model within the Lagrangian air pollution model, ACDEP (Atmospheric Chemistry and Deposition). Results: The collective results of pollen measurements and back-trajectory analysis indicate plumes of Ambrosia pollen travelling up through Poland from the southeast during the investigated episodes. In 1999, the plume was first recorded at Rzeszow in Southeastern Poland during the morning of the 4th September. Its route can be followed as it passed Krakow during the afternoon of the 4th, and later on the 4th and 5th September at Poznań. Similarly, back-trajectories calculated during the morning and afternoon from Krakow and Rzeszow on the 3rd September 2002 indicates that the air masses arrived at these sites from the East or Southeast. Conclusion: This study shows the progress of Ambrosia plumes into Poland from the southeast. Ambrosia pollen release occurs mainly during the day and so a midday peak in Ambrosia pollen concentrations may indicate a local source. However, if the plume of Ambrosia pollen tracked along its northwesterly path over Poland during investigated episodes did not originate from inside Poland, then it is likely that it came from the Ukraine. This identifies a possible new source of ragweed pollen for Poland. Trajectory analysis can only show the path along which an air mass travels, not the specific source area. Further investigation could therefore include source based transport models such as 3D Eulerian atmospheric transport models.

Lessons Learnt From Ragweed and Birch Studies

Here we review some of the most important aspects of recent work on Ragweed (Ambrosia) and birch (Betula) concerning: 1) sources, 2) trends & phenology and 3) dispersion and transformation. Sources: At Northern latitudes the birch fraction in forests usually exceeds 50% of all broadleaved trees and the abundance of birch decreases with latitude from 5%-20% in many mid-latitude regions and down to 0%-2% in more southern areas. Birches are also commonly found in small woodlands or planted as ornamental trees in urban areas. Ragweeds are herbaceous weed species that are associated with areas of disturbance. Ragweed is native to North America, but considered an invasive species in Europe, Australia and China. In Europe, the four main centres are: The Pannonian Plain, Ukraine, The Po Valley (Italy) and the Rhone Valley (France). Trends & Phenology: Birch pollen seasons have started earlier during the last decades. This trend appears have decreased during recent years despite increasing spring temperatures. Ragweed tends to experience less change in flowering date as ragweed flowering depends on photoperiod. Ragweed is increasing its distribution in Europe, but airborne concentrations of ragweed pollen are not universally increasing, e.g. due to control measures or pest attacks. Dispersion & transformation: The beginning of the birch pollen season is often heralded by episodes of Long Distance Transport (LDT) from the south. Similar LDT episodes are intermittently seen for ragweed, which can reach as far north as Scandinavia. Humidity and air pollution can modify pollen grains during atmospheric transport. This can cause a change in allergenic potential of the pollen grain and is a direction for future research including the effect of co-exposure of air pollution and the transformation of aeroallergens.