Pollen Season and Climate: Is the Timing of Birch Pollen Release in the UK Approaching its Limit?

In light of heightened interest in the response of pollen phenology to temperature, we investigated recent changes to the onset of Betula (birch) pollen seasons in central and southern England, including a test of predicted advancement of the Betula pollen season for London. We calculated onset of birch pollen seasons using daily airborne pollen data obtained at London, Plymouth and Worcester, determined trends in the start of the pollen season and compared timing of the birch pollen season with observed temperature patterns for the period 1995–2010. We found no overall change in the onset of birch pollen in the study period although there was evidence that the response to temperature was nonlinear and that a lower asymptotic start of the pollen season may exist. The start of the birch pollen season was strongly correlated with March mean temperature. These results reinforce previous findings showing that the timing of the birch pollen season in the UK is particularly sensitive to spring temperatures. The climate relationship shown here persists over both longer decadal-scale trends and shorter, seasonal trends as well as during periods of ‘sign-switching’ when cooler spring temperatures result in later start dates. These attributes, combined with the wide geographical coverage of airborne pollen monitoring sites, some with records extending back several decades, provide a powerful tool for the detection of climate change impacts, although local site factors and the requirement for winter chilling may be confounding factors.

Validity and Test –retest Reliability of the TIVRE-Basket® Test for the Determination of Aerobic Power in Elite Male Basketball Players

The aims of this study were to 1) determine the relationship between performance on the court-based TIVRE-Basket® test and peak aerobic power determined from a criterion lab-based incremental treadmill test and 2) to examine the test-retest reliability of the TIVRE-Basket® test in elite male basketball players. To address aim 1, 36 elite male basketball players (age 25.2 + 4.7 years, weight 94.1 + 11.4 kg, height 195.83 + 9.6 cm) completed a graded treadmill exercise test and the TIVRE-Basket® within 72 hours. Mean distance recorded during the TIVRE-Basket® test was 4001.8 + 176.4m, and mean VO2 peak was 54.7 + 2.8 ml.kg.min-1, and the correlation between the two parameters was r=0.824 (P= <0.001). Linear regression analysis identified TIVRE-Basket® distance (m) as the only unique predictor of VO2 peak in a single variable plus constant model: VO2 peak = 2.595 + ((0.13* TIVRE-Basket® distance (m)). Performance on the TIVRE-Basket® test accounted for 67.8% of the variance in VO2 peak (t=8.466, P=<.001, 95% CI 0.01 - 0.016, SEE 1.61). To address aim 2, 20 male basketball players (age 26.7±4.2; height 1.94±0.92; weight 94.0±9.1) performed the TIVRE-Basket® test on two occasions. There was no significant difference in total distance covered between Trial 1 (4138.8 + 677.3m) and Trial 2 (4188.0 + 648.8m; t = 0.5798, P = 0.5688). Mean difference between trials was 49.2 + 399.5m, with an ICC of 0.85 suggesting a moderate level of reliability. Standardised TEM was 0.88%, representing a moderate degree of trial to trial error, and the CV was 6.3%. The TIVRE-Basket® test therefore represents a valid and moderately reliable court-based sport-specific test of aerobic power for use with individuals and teams of elite level male basketball players. Future research is required to ascertain its validity and reliability in other basketball populations e.g. across age groups, at different levels of competition, in females and in different forms of the game e.g. wheelchair basketball.