Acute Asthma Epidemics, Weather and Pollen in England, 1987-1994

Recent epidemics of acute asthma have caused speculation that, if their causes were known, early warnings might be feasible. In particular, some epidemics seemed to be associated with thunderstorms. We wondered what risk factors predicting epidemics could be identified. Daily asthma admissions counts during 1987-1994, for two age groups (0-14 yrs and > or = 15 yrs), were measured using the Hospital Episodes System (HES). Epidemics were defined as combinations of date, age group and English Regional Health Authority (RHA) with exceptionally high asthma admission counts compared to the predictions of a log-linear autoregression model. They were compared with control days 1 week before and afterwards, regarding seven meteorological variables and 5 day average pollen counts for four species. Fifty six asthma epidemics were identified. The mean density of sferics (lightning flashes), temperature and rainfall on epidemic days were greater than those on control days. High sferics densities were overrepresented in epidemics. Simultaneously high sferics and grass pollen further increased the probability of an epidemic, but only to 15% (95% confidence interval 2-45%). Two thirds of epidemics were not preceded by thunderstorms. Thunderstorms and high grass pollen levels precede asthma epidemics more often than expected by chance. However, most epidemics are not associated with thunderstorms or unusual weather conditions, and most thunderstorms, even following high grass pollen levels, do not precede epidemics. An early warning system based on the indicators examined here would, therefore, detect few epidemics and generate an unacceptably high rate of false alarms.

Exploring Variations in Teachers' Work, Lives and Their Effects on Pupils: Key Findings and Implications from a Longitudinal Mixed Methods Study

This article outlines the research design of a large‐scale, longitudinal research study in England intended to describe and explore variations in teachers' work, lives and their effects on pupils' educational outcomes. The study, funded by the Department for Education and Skills (DfES) and incorporated into the Teaching and Learning Research Programme (TLRP) as an ‘Associate Project’, used an innovative mixed‐methods research design to create case studies of 300 teachers in Years 2, 6 and 9. The research was conducted over three consecutive academic years and collected a wide range of data through interviews, questionnaire surveys of teachers' and pupils' views and assessment data on pupils' attainments in English and mathematics. The text summarises the main findings from the research in relation to four interconnected themes of the study: Professional Life Phases; Professional Identity; Relative Effectiveness; and Resilience and Commitment. The influence of school context, in terms of level of social disadvantage of pupil intake, is also investigated. Key findings and their implications for policy and practice are highlighted.