Constructing a 7-day Ahead Forecast Model for Grass Pollen at North London, United Kingdom

A number of media outlets now issue medium-range (~7 day) weather forecasts on a regular basis. It is therefore logical that aerobiologists should attempt to produce medium-range forecasts for allergenic pollen that cover the same time period as the weather forecasts. The objective of this study is to construct a medium-range (< 7 day) forecast model for grass pollen at north London. The forecast models were produced using regression analysis based on grass pollen and meteorological data from 1990-1999 and tested on data from 2000 and 2002. The modelling process was improved by dividing the grass pollen season into three periods; the pre-peak, peak and post peak periods of grass pollen release. The forecast consisted of five regression models. Two simple linear regression models predicting the start and end date of the peak period, and three multiple regression models forecasting daily average grass pollen counts in the pre-peak, peak and post-peak periods. Overall the forecast models achieved 62% accuracy in 2000 and 47% in 2002, reflecting the fact that the 2002 grass pollen season was of a higher magnitude than any of the other seasons included in the analysis. This study has the potential to make a notable contribution to the field of aerobiology. Winter averages of the North Atlantic Oscillation were used to predict certain characteristics of the grass pollen season, which presents an important advance in aerobiological work. The ability to predict allergenic pollen counts for a period between five and seven days will benefit allergy sufferers. Furthermore, medium-range forecasts for allergenic pollen will be of assistance to the medical profession, including allergists planning treatment and physicians scheduling clinical trials.

Relative Efficiencies of the Burkard 7-Day, Rotorod and Burkard Personal Samplers for Poaceae and Urticaceae Pollen under Field Conditions

Introduction: In aerobiological studies it is often necessary to compare concentration data recorded with different models of sampling instrument. Sampler efficiency typically varies from device to device, and depends on the target aerosol and local atmospheric conditions. To account for these differences inter-sampler correction factors may be applied, however for many pollen samplers and pollen taxa such correction factors do not exist and cannot be derived from existing published work. Materials and methods: In this study the relative efficiencies of the Burkard 7-Day Recording Volumetric Spore Trap, the Sampling Technologies Rotorod Model 20 and the Burkard Personal Volumetric Air Sampler were evaluated for Urticaceae and Poaceae pollen under field conditions, and the influence of wind speed and relative humidity on these efficiency relationships was assessed. Data for the two pollen taxa were collected during 2010 and 2011-12 respectively. Results: The three devices were found to record significantly different concentrations for both pollen taxa, with the exception of the 7-Day and Rotorod samplers for Poaceae pollen. Under the range of conditions present during the study wind speed was found to only have a significant impact on inter-sampler relationships involving the vertically orientated Burkard Personal sampler, whilst no interaction between relative efficiency and relative humidity was observed. Conclusions: Data collected with the three models of sampler should only be compared once the appropriate correction has been made, with wind speed taken into account where appropriate.

Determination of Alternaria spp. Habitats Using 7-Day Volumetric Spore Trap, Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory Model and Geographic Information System

There are many species among the Alternaria genus, which hosts on economically important crops causing significant yield losses. Less attention has been paid to fungi hosting on plants constituting substantial components of pastures and meadows. Alternaria spp. spores are also recognised as important allergens. A 7-day volumetric spore trap was used to monitor the concentration of airborne fungal spores. Air samples were collected in Worcester, England (2006–2010). Days with a high spore count were then selected. The longest episode that occurred within a five year study was chosen for modelling. Two source maps presenting distribution of crops under rotation and pastures in the UK were produced. Back trajectories were calculated using the HYSPLIT model. In ArcGIS clusters of trajectories were studied in connection with source maps by including the height above ground level and the speed of the air masses. During the episode no evidence for a long distance transport from the continent of Alternaria spp. spores was detected. The overall direction of the air masses fell within the range from South-West to North. The back trajectories indicated that the most important sources of Alternaria spp. spores were located in the West Midlands of England.