A 30-Day-Ahead Forecast Model for Grass Pollen in North London, United Kingdom

A 30-day ahead forecast method has been developed for grass pollen at north London. The total period of the grass pollen season is covered by eight multiple regression models, each covering a 10-day period running consecutively from 21st May to 8th August. This means that three models were used for each 30-day forecast. The forecast models were produced using grass pollen and environmental data from 1961-1999 and tested on data from 2000 and 2002. Model accuracy was judged in two ways: the number of times the forecast model was able to successfully predict the severity (relative to the 1961-1999 dataset as a whole) of grass pollen counts in each of the eight forecast periods on a scale of one to four; and the number of times the forecast model was able to predict whether grass pollen counts were higher or lower than the mean. The models achieved 62.5% accuracy in both assessment years when predicting the relative severity of grass pollen counts on a scale of one to four, which equates to six of the eight 10-day periods being forecast correctly. The models attained 87.5% and 100% accuracy in 2000 and 2002 respectively when predicting whether grass pollen counts would be higher or lower than the mean. Attempting to predict pollen counts during distinct 10-day periods throughout the grass pollen season is a novel approach. The models also employed original methodology in the use of winter averages of the North Atlantic Oscillation to forecast 10-day means of allergenic pollen counts.

Influence of Different Performance Levels on Pacing Strategy During the Women's World Championship Marathon Race.

Purpose To analyse pacing strategies displayed by athletes achieving differing levels of performance during an elite level marathon race. Methods Competitors in the 2009 IAAF Women’s Marathon Championship were split into Groups 1, 2, 3, and 4 comprising the first, second, third, and fourth 25% of finishers respectively. Final, intermediate, and personal best (PB) times of finishers were converted to mean speeds, and relative speed (% of PB speed) was calculated for intermediate segments. Results Mean PB speed decreased from Group 1 to 4 and speed maintained in the race was 98.5 + 1.8%, 97.4 + 3.2%, 95.0 + 3.1% and 92.4 + 4.4% of PB speed for Groups 1-4 respectively. Group 1 was fastest in all segments and differences in speed between groups increased throughout the race. Group 1 ran at lower relative speeds than other groups for the first two 5 km segments, but higher relative speeds after 35km. Significant differences (P<0.01) in the percentage of PB speed maintained were observed between Groups 1 and 4, and 2 and 4 in all segments after 20 km, and Groups 3 and 4 from 20-25 km and 30-35 km. Conclusions Group 1 athletes achieved superior finishing times relative to their PB than athletes in other Groups who selected unsustainable initial speeds resulting in subsequent significant losses of speed. It is suggested that psychological factors specific to a major competitive event influenced decision making by athletes and poor decisions resulted in final performances inferior to those expected based on PB times.