A 30-Day-Ahead Forecast Model for Grass Pollen in North London, United Kingdom

A 30-day ahead forecast method has been developed for grass pollen at north London. The total period of the grass pollen season is covered by eight multiple regression models, each covering a 10-day period running consecutively from 21st May to 8th August. This means that three models were used for each 30-day forecast. The forecast models were produced using grass pollen and environmental data from 1961-1999 and tested on data from 2000 and 2002. Model accuracy was judged in two ways: the number of times the forecast model was able to successfully predict the severity (relative to the 1961-1999 dataset as a whole) of grass pollen counts in each of the eight forecast periods on a scale of one to four; and the number of times the forecast model was able to predict whether grass pollen counts were higher or lower than the mean. The models achieved 62.5% accuracy in both assessment years when predicting the relative severity of grass pollen counts on a scale of one to four, which equates to six of the eight 10-day periods being forecast correctly. The models attained 87.5% and 100% accuracy in 2000 and 2002 respectively when predicting whether grass pollen counts would be higher or lower than the mean. Attempting to predict pollen counts during distinct 10-day periods throughout the grass pollen season is a novel approach. The models also employed original methodology in the use of winter averages of the North Atlantic Oscillation to forecast 10-day means of allergenic pollen counts.

Development of Detection Systems for the Sporangia of Peronospora Destructor

A monoclonal antibody that recognises components of the wall of sporangia of Peronospora destructor was raised. Tests using spores of higher fungi and other species of mildew demonstrated the specificity of the monoclonal. The antibody was used to develop lateral flow devices for sporangia of P. destructor. A competitive lateral flow format was developed which could detect onion downy mildew sporangia. Five-microliter gold anti-mouse IgM solution pre-mixed with 10 μl of P. destructor monoclonal antibody (EMA 242) proved the optimal concentration for detection of sporangia of P. destructor when applied to sample pads of lateral flow devices. Limits of approximately 500 sporangia of P. destructor could be detected by the absence of a test line on the lateral flow device within test samples. Using a scanning densitometer improved the sensitivity of detection. Further development and validation of the test is required if it is to be used for risk assessments of onion downy mildew in the field.