The Long Range Transport of Birch (Betula) Pollen from Poland and Germany Causes Significant Pre-season Concentrations in Denmark

Background Birch pollen is highly allergic and has the potential for episodically long range transport. Such episodes will in general occur out of the main pollen season. During that time allergy patients are unprotected and high pollen concentrations will therefore have a full allergenic impact. Objective To show that Denmark obtains significant quantities of birch pollen from Poland or Germany before the local trees start to flower. Methods Simultaneous observations of pollen concentrations and phenology in the potential source area in Poland as well as in Denmark were performed in 2006. The Danish pollen records from 2000-2006 were analysed for possible long range transport episodes and analysed with trajectories in combination with a birch tree source map. Results In 2006 high pollen concentrations were observed in Denmark with bi-hourly concentrations above 500 grains/ m3 before the local trees began to flower. Poland was identified as a source region. The analysis of the historical pollen record from Copenhagen shows significant pre-seasonal pollen episodes almost every year from 2000-2006. In all episodes trajectory analysis identified Germany or Poland as source regions. Conclusion Denmark obtains significant pre-seasonal quantities of birch pollen from either Poland or Germany almost every year. Forecasting of birch pollen quantities relevant to allergy patients must therefore take into account long-range transport. This cannot be based on measured concentrations in Denmark. The most effective way to improve the current Danish pollen forecasts is to extend the current forecasts with atmospheric transport models that take into account pollen emission and transport from countries such as Germany and Poland. Unless long range transport is taken into account pre-seasonal pollen episodes will have a full allergic impact, as the allergy patients in general will be unprotected during that time.

Changes in the Pollen Seasons of the Early Flowering Trees Alnus spp. and Corylus spp. in Worcester United Kingdom 1996-2005

Previous work on Betula spp. (birch) in the UK and at five sites in Europe has shown that pollen seasons for this taxon have tended to become earlier by about 5–10 days per decade in most regions investigated over the last 30 years. This pattern has been linked to the trend to warmer winters and springs in recent years. However, little work has been done to investigate the changes in the pollen seasons for the early flowering trees. Several of these, such as Alnus spp. and Corylus spp., have allergens, which cross-react with those of Betula spp., and so have a priming effect on allergic people. This paper investigates pollen seasons for Alnus spp. and Corylus spp. for the years 1996–2005 at Worcester, in the West Midlands, United Kingdom. Pollen data for daily average counts were collected using a Burkard volumetric trap sited on the exposed roof of a three-storey building. The climate is western maritime. Meteorological data for daily temperatures (maximum and minimum) and rainfall were obtained from the local monitoring sites. The local area up to approximately 10 km surrounding the site is mostly level terrain with some undulating hills and valleys. The local vegetation is mixed farmland and deciduous woodland. The pollen seasons for the two taxa investigated are typically late December or early January to late March. Various ways of defining the start and end of the pollen seasons were considered for these taxa, but the most useful was the 1% method whereby the season is deemed to have started when 1% of the total catch is achieved and to have ended when 99% is reached. The cumulative catches (in grains/m3) for Alnus spp. varied from 698 (2001) to 3,467 (2004). For Corylus spp., they varied from 65 (2001) to 4,933 (2004). The start dates for Alnus spp. showed 39 days difference in the 10 years (earliest 2000 day 21, latest 1996 day 60). The end dates differed by 26 days and the length of season differed by 15 days. The last 4 years in the set had notably higher cumulative counts than the first 2, but there was no trend towards earlier starts. For Corylus spp. start days also differed by 39 days (earliest 1999 day 5, latest 1996 day 44). The end date differed by 35 days and length of season by 26 days. Cumulative counts and lengths of season showed a distinct pattern of alternative high (long) and low (short) years. There is some evidence of a synchronous pattern for Alnus spp.. These patterns show some significant correlations with temperature and rainfall through the autumn, winter and early spring, and some relationships with growth degree 4s and chill units, but the series is too short to discern trends. The analysis has provided insight to the variation in the seasons for these early flowering trees and will form a basis for future work on building predictive models for these taxa.

Are the Birch Trees in Southern England a Source of Betula Pollen for North London?

Birch pollen is highly allergenic. Knowledge of daily variations, atmospheric transport and source areas of birch pollen is important for exposure studies and for warnings to the public, especially for large cities such as London. Our results show that broad-leaved forests with high birch tree densities are located to the south and west of London. Bi-hourly Betula pollen concentrations for all the days included in the study, and for all available days with high birch pollen counts (daily average birch pollen counts >80 grains/m3), show that, on average, there is a peak between 1400 hours and 1600 hours. Back-trajectory analysis showed that, on days with high birch pollen counts (n=60), 80% of air masses arriving at the time of peak diurnal birch pollen count approached North London from the south in a 180 degree arc from due east to due west. Detailed investigations of three Betula pollen episodes, with distinctly different diurnal patterns compared to the mean daily cycle, were used to illustrate how night-time maxima (2200–0400 hours) in Betula pollen counts could be the result of transport from distant sources or long transport times caused by slow moving air masses. We conclude that the Betula pollen recorded in North London could originate from sources found to the west and south of the city and not just trees within London itself. Possible sources outside the city include Continental Europe and the Betula trees within the broad-leaved forests of Southern England.

A 30-Day-Ahead Forecast Model for Grass Pollen in North London, United Kingdom

A 30-day ahead forecast method has been developed for grass pollen at north London. The total period of the grass pollen season is covered by eight multiple regression models, each covering a 10-day period running consecutively from 21st May to 8th August. This means that three models were used for each 30-day forecast. The forecast models were produced using grass pollen and environmental data from 1961-1999 and tested on data from 2000 and 2002. Model accuracy was judged in two ways: the number of times the forecast model was able to successfully predict the severity (relative to the 1961-1999 dataset as a whole) of grass pollen counts in each of the eight forecast periods on a scale of one to four; and the number of times the forecast model was able to predict whether grass pollen counts were higher or lower than the mean. The models achieved 62.5% accuracy in both assessment years when predicting the relative severity of grass pollen counts on a scale of one to four, which equates to six of the eight 10-day periods being forecast correctly. The models attained 87.5% and 100% accuracy in 2000 and 2002 respectively when predicting whether grass pollen counts would be higher or lower than the mean. Attempting to predict pollen counts during distinct 10-day periods throughout the grass pollen season is a novel approach. The models also employed original methodology in the use of winter averages of the North Atlantic Oscillation to forecast 10-day means of allergenic pollen counts.

Constructing a 7-day Ahead Forecast Model for Grass Pollen at North London, United Kingdom

A number of media outlets now issue medium-range (~7 day) weather forecasts on a regular basis. It is therefore logical that aerobiologists should attempt to produce medium-range forecasts for allergenic pollen that cover the same time period as the weather forecasts. The objective of this study is to construct a medium-range (< 7 day) forecast model for grass pollen at north London. The forecast models were produced using regression analysis based on grass pollen and meteorological data from 1990-1999 and tested on data from 2000 and 2002. The modelling process was improved by dividing the grass pollen season into three periods; the pre-peak, peak and post peak periods of grass pollen release. The forecast consisted of five regression models. Two simple linear regression models predicting the start and end date of the peak period, and three multiple regression models forecasting daily average grass pollen counts in the pre-peak, peak and post-peak periods. Overall the forecast models achieved 62% accuracy in 2000 and 47% in 2002, reflecting the fact that the 2002 grass pollen season was of a higher magnitude than any of the other seasons included in the analysis. This study has the potential to make a notable contribution to the field of aerobiology. Winter averages of the North Atlantic Oscillation were used to predict certain characteristics of the grass pollen season, which presents an important advance in aerobiological work. The ability to predict allergenic pollen counts for a period between five and seven days will benefit allergy sufferers. Furthermore, medium-range forecasts for allergenic pollen will be of assistance to the medical profession, including allergists planning treatment and physicians scheduling clinical trials.

Examining High Magnitude Grass Pollen Episodes at Worcester, United Kingdom, Using Back-Trajectory Analysis

Trajectory analysis is a valuable tool that has been used before in aerobiological studies, to investigate the movement of airborne pollen. This study has employed back-trajectories to examine the four highest grass pollen episodes at Worcester, during the 2001 grass pollen season. The results have shown that the highest grass pollen counts of the 2001 season were reached when air masses arrived from a westerly direction. Back-trajectory analysis has a limited value to forecasters because the method is retrospective and cannot be employed directly for forecasting. However, when used in conjunction with meteorological data this technique can be used to examine high magnitude events in order to identify conditions that lead to high pollen counts.

Characteristics of Grass Pollen Seasons in Areas of Southern Spain and the United Kingdom

Spatial and temporal variations in daily grass pollen counts and weather variables are described for two regions with different bio-geographical and climatic regimes, southern Spain and the United Kingdom. Daily average grass pollen counts are considered from six pollen-monitoring sites, three in southern Spain (Ciudad Real, Córdoba and Priego) and three in the United Kingdom (Edinburgh, Worcester and Cambridge). Analysis shows that rainfall and maximum temperatures are important factors controlling the magnitude of the grass pollen season in both southern Spain and the United Kingdom, and that the strength and direction of the influence exerted by these variables varies with geographical location and time.

Temporal and Georaphical Variations in Grass Pollen Seasons in Areas of Western Europe: an Analysis of Season dates at Sites of the European Pollen Information System.

Geographical and temporal variations in the start dates of grass pollen seasons are described for selected sites of the European Pollen Information Service. Daily average grass pollen counts are derived from Network sites in Finland, the Netherlands, Denmark, United Kingdom, Austria, Italy and Spain, giving a broad longitudinal transect over Western Europe. The study is part of a larger project that also examines annual and regional variations in the severity, timing of the peak and duration of the grass pollen seasons. For several sites, data are available for over twenty years enabling long term trends to be discerned. The analyses show notable contrasts in the progression of the seasons annually with differing lag times occurring between southern and northern sites in various years depending on the weather conditions. The patterns identified provide some insight into geographical differences and temporal trends in the incidence of pollinosis. The paper discusses the main difficulties involved in this type of analysis and notes possibilities for using data from the European Pollen Information service to construct pan European predictive models for pollen seasons.

Acute Asthma Epidemics, Weather and Pollen in England, 1987-1994

Recent epidemics of acute asthma have caused speculation that, if their causes were known, early warnings might be feasible. In particular, some epidemics seemed to be associated with thunderstorms. We wondered what risk factors predicting epidemics could be identified. Daily asthma admissions counts during 1987-1994, for two age groups (0-14 yrs and > or = 15 yrs), were measured using the Hospital Episodes System (HES). Epidemics were defined as combinations of date, age group and English Regional Health Authority (RHA) with exceptionally high asthma admission counts compared to the predictions of a log-linear autoregression model. They were compared with control days 1 week before and afterwards, regarding seven meteorological variables and 5 day average pollen counts for four species. Fifty six asthma epidemics were identified. The mean density of sferics (lightning flashes), temperature and rainfall on epidemic days were greater than those on control days. High sferics densities were overrepresented in epidemics. Simultaneously high sferics and grass pollen further increased the probability of an epidemic, but only to 15% (95% confidence interval 2-45%). Two thirds of epidemics were not preceded by thunderstorms. Thunderstorms and high grass pollen levels precede asthma epidemics more often than expected by chance. However, most epidemics are not associated with thunderstorms or unusual weather conditions, and most thunderstorms, even following high grass pollen levels, do not precede epidemics. An early warning system based on the indicators examined here would, therefore, detect few epidemics and generate an unacceptably high rate of false alarms.

Pollen Allergy in Cordoba City: Frequency of Sensitization and Relation with Antihistamine Sales

The occurrence of symptoms in pollen allergy patients in urban areas may be affected by local environmental factors such as sources of pollution, natural and ornamental vegetation, local architecture impeding dispersion, etc. The aim of this study was to analyse the frequency of sensitization in pollen allergy patients and the relationship with antihistamine sales. For this study, a large number of clinical records, together with pharmaceutical and pollen data, were collected between 1999 and 2001 in the city of Córdoba, in the south of the Iberian Peninsula. Differences were observed in the symptoms suffered by pollen allergy patients in different areas of the city due to varying local emission of both biological and non-biological particles. Temporal distribution of symptoms over the three study years was influenced by meteorological factors, especially rainfall patterns; higher water supply to plants was associated with increased airborne pollen concentrations. Air pollution might be one of the main factors affecting the distribution of pollen allergy patients within the city. Recent years have seen a worsening of symptoms and increased sensitization to urban species such as plane-trees.

Influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation on Grass Pollen Counts in Europe

Relationships between temporal variations in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and grass pollen counts at 13 sites in Europe, ranging from Córdoba in the South-West and Turku in the North-East, were studied in order to determine spatial differences in the amount of influence exerted by the NAO on the timing and magnitude of grass pollen seasons. There were a number of significant (p<0.05) relationships between the NAO and start dates of the grass pollen season at the 13 pollen-monitoring sites. The strongest associations were generally recorded near to the Atlantic coast. Several significant correlations also existed between winter averages of the NAO and grass pollen season severity. Traditional methods for predicting the start or magnitude of grass pollen seasons have centred on the use of local meteorological observations, but this study has shown the importance of considering large-scale patterns of climate variability like the NAO.

Factors that Determine the Severity of Betula spp. Pollen Seasons in Poland (Poznań and Krakow) and the United Kingdom (Worcester and London)

The aim of this paper is to analyse variations in the severity of Betula pollen seasons, particularly in relation to meteorological parameters at four sites, Poznań and Krakow in Poland and Worcester and London in the United Kingdom. Results show that there is a significant relationship between Betula pollen season severity and weather conditions in the year before pollination as well as conditions in the same year that pollen is released from the plant. Furthermore, it is likely that the magnitude of birch pollen seasons in Poznań, Worcester and London is linked in some way to different phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Significant positive relationships exist between birch pollen counts at Poznań and temperatures, rainfall and averages of the NAO in the year before pollination. An opposite relationship is evident at the two sites studied in the British Isles. There were significant positive correlations between the severity of birch pollen seasons recorded at Worcester and London and temperatures and averages of the NAO during the year of pollination, and negative correlations with similar variables from the previous year. In addition, Betula pollen seasons in Krakow do not appear to be influenced by the NAO, which is probably the result of Krakow having a more continental climate.

Long-term and Short-term Forecast Models for Poaceae (Grass) Pollen in Poznan, Poland, Constructed Using Regression Analysis

Airborne concentrations of Poaceae pollen have been monitored in Poznań for more than ten years and the length of the dataset is now considered sufficient for statistical analysis. The objective of this paper is to produce long-range forecasts that predict certain characteristics of the grass pollen season (such as the start, peak and end dates of the grass pollen season) as well as short-term forecasts that predict daily variations in grass pollen counts for the next day or next few days throughout the main grass pollen season. The method of forecasting was regression analysis. Correlation analysis was used to examine the relationship between grass pollen counts and the factors that affect its production, release and dispersal. The models were constructed with data from 1994-2004 and tested on data from 2005 and 2006. The forecast models predicted the start of the grass pollen season to within 2 days and achieved 61% and 70% accuracy on a scale of 1-4 when forecasting variations in daily grass pollen counts in 2005 and 2006 respectively. This study has emphasised how important the weather during the few weeks or months preceding pollination is to grass pollen production, and draws attention to the importance of considering large-scale patterns of climate variability (indices of the North Atlantic Oscillation) when constructing forecast models for allergenic pollen.

Long-range Transport of Ambrosia Pollen to Poland

The long-range transport of Ambrosia pollen to Poland is intermittent and mainly related to the passage of air masses over the Carpathian and Sudetes mountains. These episodes are associated with hot dry weather, a deep Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) in the source areas and winds from the south. Such episodes can transport significant amounts of Ambrosia pollen into Poland. The study investigates Ambrosia pollen episodes at eight sites in Poland during the period 7th to 10th September 2005, by examining temporal variations in Ambrosia pollen and back-trajectories. PBL depths in the likely source areas were calculated with the Eta meteorological model and evaluated against the mountain heights. Considerable amounts of Ambrosia pollen were recorded at several monitoring sites during the night or early in the morning of the investigated period. Trajectory analyses shows that the air masses arriving at the Polish sites predominantly came from the south, and were in the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Hungary the previous day indicating these countries as potential source areas. We have shown the progress of Ambrosia plumes into Poland from the south of the country, probably from Slovakia and Hungary, and demonstrated how Lagrangian back-trajectory models and meteorological models can be used to identify possible transport mechanisms of Ambrosia pollen from potential source regions.