Il valore del voto: Italia e Spagna nel dibattito sulla rappresentanza politica liberale (1860-1870)

During the 1860's and 1870's, Spain and Italy experienced a convergence of debates on the significance of political representation in the framework of Liberal State. Spain suffered a political and social crisis, ending with the Revolution of 1868 and the adoption of male universal suffrage in 1878. Its coeval Italy began to build its new Kingdom, anxious about state building, as well as the relevance of electoral processes in the Constitutional scheme. Although members of parliament and essayists of both countries well knew their neighbour's political reality, a dialogue on representation didn't occur. Nonetheless, we believe it is useful to analyse the survey drawn by the Italian publicist in the light of current knowledge of the opinions that prevailed in Spain. What sense did they give to the general election? How did they understand the value of the vote? Who were considered eligible voters? These questions comprise the main subjects of the essay.

Forecasting Elections with High Volatility

This article uses data from the social survey Allbus 1998 to introduce a method of forecasting elections in a context of electoral volatility. The approach models the processes of change in electoral behaviour, exploring patterns in order to model the volatility expressed by voters. The forecast is based on the matrix of transition probabilities, following the logic of Markov chains. The power of the matrix, and the use of the mover-stayer model, is debated for alternative forecasts. As an example of high volatility, the model uses data from the German general election of 1998. The unification of two German states in 1990 caused the incorporation of around 15 million new voters from East Germany who had limited familiarity and no direct experience of the political culture in West Germany. Under these circumstances, voters were expected to show high volatility.