Stochastic choice analysis of tourism destinations

The analysis of tourist destination choice, defined by intra-country administrative units and by product types “coastal/inland and village/city”, permits the characterisation of tourist flow behaviour, which is fundamental for public planning and business management. In this study, we analyse the determinant factors of tourist destination choice, proposing various research hypotheses relative to the impact of destination attributes and the personal characteristics of tourists. The methodology applied estimates Nested and Random Coefficients Multinomial Logit Models, which allow control over possible correlations among different destinations. The empirical application is realised in Spain on a sample of 3,781 individuals and allows us to conclude that prices, distance to the destination and personal motivations are determinants in destination choice.

Beyond megaprojects?. Water alternatives for mass tourism in coastal Mediterranean Spain

Water availability in adequate quantities and qualities is a fundamental requirement for tourism. In the Mediterranean, one of the world’s leading tourist destinations, water availability is subject to modest and erratic precipitation figures which may decline with climate change. The tourist industry therefore may have to assure future supplies by either recurring to new technologies such as desalination or increasing efficiency in water use. A third and yet little explored alternative would be to seek for complementary of uses with irrigation, the traditional user in many coastal Mediterranean areas and holder of substantial amounts of water. In this paper we present the example of the Consorcio de Aguas de la Marina Baja to show how Benidorm, in Mediterranean Spain and one of the most important tourist centers of the Mediterranean, obtains part of its water through agreements with farmers by which these trade their water with Benidorm and other towns’ treated wastewater of enough quality to be used for irrigation, and obtain several compensations in return. The advantages and disadvantages of the water trade between farmers and tourist interests in the Benidorm area are discussed and we argue that solutions to the pending water crisis of many coastal Mediterranean tourist areas may not need to rely uniquely on expensive technologies to generate new resources but may attempt other alternatives.

Economic cycles, asymmetric crises and tourism competitiveness: emerging versus mature destinations

This paper considers the influence of business cycles and economic crises on tourism destinations competitiveness. This competitiveness is measured by its share in world tourism. Analysing a period of forty years, the differential permanent or temporary effects that economic crises has on competitiveness of mature and emerging destinations are observed. Furthermore, it identifies the economic transmission mechanisms operating within this context, analysing them using the framework of the most relevant explanatory models of tourism destination competitiveness. The preliminary results obtained suggest that the effects of these shocks on competitiveness are not neutral. In mature destinations the negative effects are more persistent in highly intensive crises. In emerging destinations with a growing natural trend on tourism demand, the effects of the economic crises are softer and limited, reinforcing the process of convergence between destinations. This effect works through two basic transmission mechanisms: the reduction of internal and external tourism demand and the decrease on investment.

Economic crisis and tourism competitiveness in Spain: permanent effects or transitory shocks?

This paper considers the influence of business cycles and economic crises on Spain's tourism competitiveness. This competitiveness is measured by its share in world tourism. Analysing the presence of unit roots in the market share series from 1958 to 2010, the permanent effects of economic crises on competitiveness are evaluated. The evidence from standard linear unit root tests indicates that crises on Spanish market shares are highly persistent. When we account for endogenously determined structural breaks, we obtain greater support for stationarity, but breakpoints are identified with major economic crises. Therefore the main conclusion obtained is that the effects of the economic shocks are not neutral on competitiveness, with the negative effects being more persistent in highly intensive crises. These crises reinforce a natural downward trend of the Spanish world tourism market share caused by the natural emergence of new competing destinations and by the maturity of the Spain's principal tourism product.

A Sociocybernetics Data Analysis Using Causality in Tourism Networks

The aim of this paper is to propose a mathematical model to determine invariant sets, set covering, orbits and, in particular, attractors in the set of tourism variables. Analysis was carried out based on a pre-designed algorithm and applying our interpretation of chaos theory developed in the context of General Systems Theory. This article sets out the causal relationships associated with tourist flows in order to enable the formulation of appropriate strategies. Our results can be applied to numerous cases. For example, in the analysis of tourist flows, these findings can be used to determine whether the behaviour of certain groups affects that of other groups and to analyse tourist behaviour in terms of the most relevant variables. Unlike statistical analyses that merely provide information on current data, our method uses orbit analysis to forecast, if attractors are found, the behaviour of tourist variables in the immediate future.