On the steric and mass-induced contributions to the annual sea level variations in the Mediterranean Sea

The sea level variation (SLVtotal) is the sum of two major contributions: steric and mass-induced. The steric SLVsteric is that resulting from the thermal and salinity changes in a given water column. It only involves volume change, hence has no gravitational effect. The mass-induced SLVmass, on the other hand, arises from adding or subtracting water mass to or from the water column and has direct gravitational signature. We examine the closure of the seasonal SLV budget and estimate the relative importance of the two contributions in the Mediterranean Sea as a function of time. We use ocean altimetry data (from TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason 1, ERS, and ENVISAT missions) to estimate SLVtotal, temperature, and salinity data (from the Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean ocean model) to estimate SLVsteric, and time variable gravity data (from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) Project, April 2002 to July 2004) to estimate SLVmass. We find that the annual cycle of SLVtotal in the Mediterranean is mainly driven by SLVsteric but moderately offset by SLVmass. The agreement between the seasonal SLVmass estimations from SLVtotal – SLVsteric and from GRACE is quite remarkable; the annual cycle reaches the maximum value in mid-February, almost half a cycle later than SLVtotal or SLVsteric, which peak by mid-October and mid-September, respectively. Thus, when sea level is rising (falling), the Mediterranean Sea is actually losing (gaining) mass. Furthermore, as SLVmass is balanced by vertical (precipitation minus evaporation, P–E) and horizontal (exchange of water with the Atlantic, Black Sea, and river runoff) mass fluxes, we compared it with the P–E determined from meteorological data to estimate the annual cycle of the horizontal flux.

Feedbacks between vegetation pattern and resource loss dramatically decrease ecosystem resilience and restoration potential in a simple dryland model

Conceptual frameworks of dryland degradation commonly include ecohydrological feedbacks between landscape spatial organization and resource loss, so that decreasing cover and size of vegetation patches result in higher water and soil losses, which lead to further vegetation loss. However, the impacts of these feedbacks on dryland dynamics in response to external stress have barely been tested. Using a spatially-explicit model, we represented feedbacks between vegetation pattern and landscape resource loss by establishing a negative dependence of plant establishment on the connectivity of runoff-source areas (e.g., bare soils). We assessed the impact of various feedback strengths on the response of dryland ecosystems to changing external conditions. In general, for a given external pressure, these connectivity-mediated feedbacks decrease vegetation cover at equilibrium, which indicates a decrease in ecosystem resistance. Along a gradient of gradual increase of environmental pressure (e.g., aridity), the connectivity-mediated feedbacks decrease the amount of pressure required to cause a critical shift to a degraded state (ecosystem resilience). If environmental conditions improve, these feedbacks increase the pressure release needed to achieve the ecosystem recovery (restoration potential). The impact of these feedbacks on dryland response to external stress is markedly non-linear, which relies on the non-linear negative relationship between bare-soil connectivity and vegetation cover. Modelling studies on dryland vegetation dynamics not accounting for the connectivity-mediated feedbacks studied here may overestimate the resistance, resilience and restoration potential of drylands in response to environmental and human pressures. Our results also suggest that changes in vegetation pattern and associated hydrological connectivity may be more informative early-warning indicators of dryland degradation than changes in vegetation cover.

Efectos del cambio climático y usos del suelo sobre los recursos hídricos de la cuenca del río Tordera (Barcelona, España)

Se presentan los efectos del cambio global en la cuenca del río Tordera (España) para el periodo 2000-2050, escenarios climáticos A2 (medio-alto) definidos por el Panel Intergubernamental del Cambio Climático (IPCC, 200) y escenarios socioeconómicos (cambios previstos en la cuenca) denominados estable y tendencial. Los efectos sobre los recursos hídricos se han analizado de forma conjunta superficial-subterránea mediante una metodológica de tipo acoplado. Para establecer los impactos futuros sobre los recursos hídricos se ha seleccionado el Modelo de Circulación Global ECHAM5 (Max Planck Institute). Los resultados obtenidos indican una disminución de la precipitación del 11.3% y un aumento de la temperatura de 1ºC, respecto a los valores históricos de la zona. De acuerdo a la proyección futura (2050) sobre cambios en los recursos hídricos, la escorrentía superficial obtenida mediante simulación con el código HEC-HMS 3.4 experimenta una reducción del 31.8% respecto al valor histórico y la recarga natural, estimada mediante VISUAL-Balan, se reduce en un 11.7%. El balance en el acuífero deltaico simulado mediante MODFLOW 2009.1 Pro muestra igualmente una disminución de los parámetros del balance. Los cambios del uso del suelo previstos de acuerdo a la legislación vigente (escenarios socioeconómicos) no conducen a la generación de un impacto apreciable en los recursos hídricos; según los escenarios definidos la variación de precipitación y temperatura son los parámetros fundamentales del cambio previsto.