La salud pública en el marco de la administración periférica: el Instituto Provincial de Higiene de Alicante (1924-1936)

Se describe el desarrollo del Instituto Provincial de Higiene de Alicante. En una primera parte se pasa revista al marco normativo nacional que dio lugar a la constitución y a las sucesivas reorganizaciones de los Institutos Provinciales de Higiene. En la segunda parte, utilizando materiales de archivo, reconstruimos la vida del Instituto Provincial de Higiene, desde sus antecedentes como Brigada Sanitaria Provincial hasta el inicio de la Guerra Civil, estudiando las fases en las que dependió de la Diputación Provincial, y, posteriormente con la República, de la Mancomunidad de Municipios.

Forecasting Elections with High Volatility

This article uses data from the social survey Allbus 1998 to introduce a method of forecasting elections in a context of electoral volatility. The approach models the processes of change in electoral behaviour, exploring patterns in order to model the volatility expressed by voters. The forecast is based on the matrix of transition probabilities, following the logic of Markov chains. The power of the matrix, and the use of the mover-stayer model, is debated for alternative forecasts. As an example of high volatility, the model uses data from the German general election of 1998. The unification of two German states in 1990 caused the incorporation of around 15 million new voters from East Germany who had limited familiarity and no direct experience of the political culture in West Germany. Under these circumstances, voters were expected to show high volatility.