Forecasting Elections with High Volatility

This article uses data from the social survey Allbus 1998 to introduce a method of forecasting elections in a context of electoral volatility. The approach models the processes of change in electoral behaviour, exploring patterns in order to model the volatility expressed by voters. The forecast is based on the matrix of transition probabilities, following the logic of Markov chains. The power of the matrix, and the use of the mover-stayer model, is debated for alternative forecasts. As an example of high volatility, the model uses data from the German general election of 1998. The unification of two German states in 1990 caused the incorporation of around 15 million new voters from East Germany who had limited familiarity and no direct experience of the political culture in West Germany. Under these circumstances, voters were expected to show high volatility.

The influence of the sample introduction system on signals of different tin compounds in inductively coupled plasma-based techniques

The influence of the sample introduction system on the signals obtained with different tin compounds in inductively coupled plasma (ICP) based techniques, i.e., ICP atomic emission spectrometry (ICP–AES) and ICP mass spectrometry (ICP–MS) has been studied. Signals for test solutions prepared from four different tin compounds (i.e., tin tetrachloride, monobutyltin, dibutyltin and di-tert-butyltin) in different solvents (methanol 0.8% (w/w), i-propanol 0.8% (w/w) and various acid matrices) have been measured by ICP–AES and ICP–MS. The results demonstrate a noticeable influence of the volatility of the tin compounds on their signals measured with both techniques. Thus, in agreement with the compound volatility, the highest signals are obtained for tin tetrachloride followed by di-tert-butyltin/monobutyltin and dibutyltin. The sample introduction system exerts an important effect on the amount of solution loading the plasma and, hence, on the relative signals afforded by the tin compounds in ICP–based techniques. Thus, when working with a pneumatic concentric nebulizer, the use of spray chambers affording high solvent transport efficiency to the plasma (such as cyclonic and single pass) or high spray chamber temperatures is recommended to minimize the influence of the tin chemical compound. Nevertheless, even when using the conventional pneumatic nebulizer coupled to the best spray chamber design (i.e., a single pass spray chamber), signals obtained for di-tert-butyltin/monobutyltin and dibutyltin are still around 10% and 30% lower than the corresponding signal for tin tetrachloride, respectively. When operating with a pneumatic microconcentric nebulizer coupled to a 50 °C-thermostated cinnabar spray chamber, all studied organotin compounds provided similar emission signals although about 60% lower than those obtained for tin tetrachloride. The use of an ultrasonic nebulizer coupled to a desolvation device provides the largest differences in the emission signals, among all tested systems.