7 resultados para hidden semi markov models

em Universidad de Alicante


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Context. The X-ray spectra observed in the persistent emission of magnetars are evidence for the existence of a magnetosphere. The high-energy part of the spectra is explained by resonant cyclotron upscattering of soft thermal photons in a twisted magnetosphere, which has motivated an increasing number of efforts to improve and generalize existing magnetosphere models. Aims. We want to build more general configurations of twisted, force-free magnetospheres as a first step to understanding the role played by the magnetic field geometry in the observed spectra. Methods. First we reviewed and extended previous analytical works to assess the viability and limitations of semi-analytical approaches. Second, we built a numerical code able to relax an initial configuration of a nonrotating magnetosphere to a force-free geometry, provided any arbitrary form of the magnetic field at the star surface. The numerical code is based on a finite-difference time-domain, divergence-free, and conservative scheme, based of the magneto-frictional method used in other scenarios. Results. We obtain new numerical configurations of twisted magnetospheres, with distributions of twist and currents that differ from previous analytical solutions. The range of global twist of the new family of solutions is similar to the existing semi-analytical models (up to some radians), but the achieved geometry may be quite different. Conclusions. The geometry of twisted, force-free magnetospheres shows a wider variety of possibilities than previously considered. This has implications for the observed spectra and opens the possibility of implementing alternative models in simulations of radiative transfer aiming at providing spectra to be compared with observations.

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This article uses data from the social survey Allbus 1998 to introduce a method of forecasting elections in a context of electoral volatility. The approach models the processes of change in electoral behaviour, exploring patterns in order to model the volatility expressed by voters. The forecast is based on the matrix of transition probabilities, following the logic of Markov chains. The power of the matrix, and the use of the mover-stayer model, is debated for alternative forecasts. As an example of high volatility, the model uses data from the German general election of 1998. The unification of two German states in 1990 caused the incorporation of around 15 million new voters from East Germany who had limited familiarity and no direct experience of the political culture in West Germany. Under these circumstances, voters were expected to show high volatility.

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Different non-Fourier models of heat conduction have been considered in recent years, in a growing area of applications, to model microscale and ultrafast, transient, nonequilibrium responses in heat and mass transfer. In this work, using Fourier transforms, we obtain exact solutions for different lagging models of heat conduction in a semi-infinite domain, which allow the construction of analytic-numerical solutions with prescribed accuracy. Examples of numerical computations, comparing the properties of the models considered, are presented.

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Studies on positive plant–plant relations have traditionally focused on pair-wise interactions. Conversely, the interaction with other co-occurring species has scarcely been addressed, despite the fact that the entire community may affect plant performance. We used woody vegetation patches as models to evaluate community facilitation in semi-arid steppes. We characterized biotic and physical attributes of 53 woody patches (patch size, litter accumulation, canopy density, vegetation cover, species number and identity, and phylogenetic distance), and soil fertility (organic C and total N), and evaluated their relative importance for the performance of seedlings of Pistacia lentiscus, a keystone woody species in western Mediterranean steppes. Seedlings were planted underneath the patches, and on their northern and southern edges. Woody patches positively affected seedling survival but not seedling growth. Soil fertility was higher underneath the patches than elsewhere. Physical and biotic attributes of woody patches affected seedling survival, but these effects depended on microsite conditions. The composition of the community of small shrubs and perennial grasses growing underneath the patches controlled seedling performance. An increase in Stipa tenacissima and a decrease in Brachypodium retusum increased the probability of survival. The cover of these species and other small shrubs, litter depth and community phylogenetic distance, were also related to seedling survival. Seedlings planted on the northern edge of the patches were mostly affected by attributes of the biotic community. These traits were of lesser importance in seedlings planted underneath and in the southern edge of patches, suggesting that constraints to seedling establishment differed within the patches. Our study highlights the importance of taking into consideration community attributes over pair-wise interactions when evaluating the outcome of ecological interactions in multi-specific communities, as they have profound implications in the composition, function and management of semi-arid steppes.

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The mathematical models of the complex reality are texts belonging to a certain literature that is written in a semi-formal language, denominated L(MT) by the authors whose laws linguistic mathematics have been previously defined. This text possesses linguistic entropy that is the reflection of the physical entropy of the processes of real world that said text describes. Through the temperature of information defined by Mandelbrot, the authors begin a text-reality thermodynamic theory that drives to the existence of information attractors, or highly structured point, settling down a heterogeneity of the space text, the same one that of ontologic space, completing the well-known law of Saint Mathew, of the General Theory of Systems and formulated by Margalef saying: “To the one that has more he will be given, and to the one that doesn't have he will even be removed it little that it possesses.

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Authors discuss the effects that economic crises generate on the global market shares of tourism destinations, through a series of potential transmission mechanisms based on the main economic competitiveness determinants identified in the previous literature using a non-linear approach. Specifically a Markov Switching Regression approach is used to estimate the effect of two basic transmission mechanisms: reductions of internal and external tourism demands and falling investment.

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The observation of several neutron stars in the centre of supernova remnants and with significantly lower values of the dipolar magnetic field than the average radio-pulsar population has motivated a lively debate about their formation and origin, with controversial interpretations. A possible explanation requires the slow rotation of the protoneutron star at birth, which is unable to amplify its magnetic field to typical pulsar levels. An alternative possibility, the hidden magnetic field scenario, considers the accretion of the fallback of the supernova debris on to the neutron star as responsible for the submergence (or screening) of the field and its apparently low value. In this paper, we study under which conditions the magnetic field of a neutron star can be buried into the crust due to an accreting, conducting fluid. For this purpose, we consider a spherically symmetric calculation in general relativity to estimate the balance between the incoming accretion flow and the magnetosphere. Our study analyses several models with different specific entropy, composition, and neutron star masses. The main conclusion of our work is that typical magnetic fields of a few times 1012 G can be buried by accreting only 10−3–10−2 M⊙, a relatively modest amount of mass. In view of this result, the central compact object scenario should not be considered unusual, and we predict that anomalously weak magnetic fields should be common in very young (< few kyr) neutron stars.