Handling of Uncertainty in Life Cycle Inventory by Correlated Multivariate Lognormal Distributions: Application to the Design of Supply Chain Networks

Poster presented in the 24th European Symposium on Computer Aided Process Engineering (ESCAPE 24), Budapest, Hungary, June 15-18, 2014.

Handling of Uncertainty in Life Cycle Inventory by Correlated Multivariate Lognormal Distributions: Application to the Design of Supply Chain Networks

In this work, we analyze the effect of incorporating life cycle inventory (LCI) uncertainty on the multi-objective optimization of chemical supply chains (SC) considering simultaneously their economic and environmental performance. To this end, we present a stochastic multi-scenario mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) coupled with a two-step transformation scenario generation algorithm with the unique feature of providing scenarios where the LCI random variables are correlated and each one of them has the desired lognormal marginal distribution. The environmental performance is quantified following life cycle assessment (LCA) principles, which are represented in the model formulation through standard algebraic equations. The capabilities of our approach are illustrated through a case study of a petrochemical supply chain. We show that the stochastic solution improves the economic performance of the SC in comparison with the deterministic one at any level of the environmental impact, and moreover the correlation among environmental burdens provides more realistic scenarios for the decision making process.

An improved procedure for obtaining and maintaining well characterized partial water saturation states on concrete samples to be used for mass transport tests

A conditioning procedure is proposed allowing to install into the concrete specimens any selected value of water saturation degree with homogeneous moisture distribution. This is achieved within the least time and the minimum alteration of the concrete specimens. The protocol has the following steps: obtaining basic drying data at 50 °C (water absorption capacity and drying curves); unidirectional drying of the specimens at 50 °C until reaching the target saturation degree values; redistribution phase in closed containers at 50 °C (with measurement of the quasi-equilibrium relative humidities); storage into controlled environment chambers until and during mass transport tests, if necessary. A water transport model is used to derive transport parameters of the tested materials from the drying data, i.e., relative permeabilities and apparent water diffusion coefficients. The model also allows calculating moisture profiles during isothermal drying and redistribution phases, thus allowing optimization of the redistribution times for obtaining homogeneous moisture distributions.

Population synthesis of isolated neutron stars with magneto-rotational evolution – II. From radio-pulsars to magnetars

Population synthesis studies constitute a powerful method to reconstruct the birth distribution of periods and magnetic fields of the pulsar population. When this method is applied to populations in different wavelengths, it can break the degeneracy in the inferred properties of initial distributions that arises from single-band studies. In this context, we extend previous works to include X-ray thermal emitting pulsars within the same evolutionary model as radio-pulsars. We find that the cumulative distribution of the number of X-ray pulsars can be well reproduced by several models that, simultaneously, reproduce the characteristics of the radio-pulsar distribution. However, even considering the most favourable magneto-thermal evolution models with fast field decay, lognormal distributions of the initial magnetic field overpredict the number of visible sources with periods longer than 12 s. We then show that the problem can be solved with different distributions of magnetic field, such as a truncated lognormal distribution, or a binormal distribution with two distinct populations. We use the observational lack of isolated neutron stars (NSs) with spin periods P > 12 s to establish an upper limit to the fraction of magnetars born with B > 1015 G (less than 1 per cent). As future detections keep increasing the magnetar and high-B pulsar statistics, our approach can be used to establish a severe constraint on the maximum magnetic field at birth of NSs.

Kinetic Model for Micro Algae Cell Concentration and Size Distribution: Application to Nannochloropsis gaditana

The cell concentration and size distribution of the microalgae Nannochloropsis gaditana were studied over the whole growth process. Various samples were taken during the light and dark periods the algae were exposed to. The distributions obtained exhibited positive skew, and no change in the type of distribution was observed during the growth process. The size distribution shifted to lower diameters in dark periods while in light periods the opposite occurred. The overall trend during the growth process was one where the size distribution shifted to larger cell diameters, with differences between initial and final distributions of individual cycles becoming smaller. A model based on the Logistic model for cell concentration as a function of time in the dark period that also takes into account cell respiration and growth processes during dark and light periods, respectively, was proposed and successfully applied. This model provides a picture that is closer to the real growth and evolution of cultures, and reveals a clear effect of light and dark periods on the different ways in which cell concentration and diameter evolve with time.