4 resultados para confidence level

em Universidad de Alicante


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We report on the long-term X-ray monitoring of the outburst decay of the low magnetic field magnetar SGR 0418+5729 using all the available X-ray data obtained with RXTE, Swift, Chandra, and XMM-Newton observations from the discovery of the source in 2009 June up to 2012 August. The timing analysis allowed us to obtain the first measurement of the period derivative of SGR 0418+5729: ˙ P = 4(1) × 10−15 s s−1, significant at a ∼3.5σ confidence level. This leads to a surface dipolar magnetic field of Bdip 6 × 1012 G. This measurement confirms SGR 0418+5729 as the lowest magnetic field magnetar. Following the flux and spectral evolution from the beginning of the outburst up to ∼1200 days, we observe a gradual cooling of the tiny hot spot responsible for the X-ray emission, from a temperature of ∼0.9 to 0.3 keV. Simultaneously, the X-ray flux decreased by about three orders of magnitude: from about 1.4 × 10−11 to 1.2 × 10−14 erg s−1 cm−2. Deep radio, millimeter, optical, and gamma-ray observations did not detect the source counterpart, implying stringent limits on its multi-band emission, as well as constraints on the presence of a fossil disk. By modeling the magneto-thermal secular evolution of SGR 0418+5729, we infer a realistic age of ∼550 kyr, and a dipolar magnetic field at birth of ∼1014 G. The outburst characteristics suggest the presence of a thin twisted bundle with a small heated spot at its base. The bundle untwisted in the first few months following the outburst, while the hot spot decreases in temperature and size. We estimate the outburst rate of low magnetic field magnetars to be about one per year per galaxy, and we briefly discuss the consequences of such a result in several other astrophysical contexts.

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We study the outburst of the newly discovered X-ray transient 3XMMJ185246.6+003317, re-analyzing all available XMM-Newton observations of the source to perform a phase-coherent timing analysis, and derive updated values of the period and period derivative. We find the source rotating at P = 11.55871346(6) s (90% confidence level; at epoch MJD 54728.7) but no evidence for a period derivative in the seven months of outburst decay spanned by the observations. This translates to a 3σ upper limit for the period derivative of ˙ P <1.4×10−13 s s−1, which, assuming the classical magneto-dipolar braking model, gives a limit on the dipolar magnetic field of Bdip < 4.1×1013 G. The X-ray outburst and spectral characteristics of 3XMM J185246.6+003317 confirm its identification as a magnetar, but the magnetic field upper limit we derive defines it as the third “low-B” magnetar discovered in the past 3 yr, after SGR 0418+5729 and Swift J1822.3−1606. We have also obtained an upper limit to the quiescent luminosity (<4×1033 erg s−1), in line with the expectations for an old magnetar. The discovery of this new low field magnetar reaffirms the prediction of about one outburst per year from the hidden population of aged magnetars.

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A new methodology is proposed to produce subsidence activity maps based on the geostatistical analysis of persistent scatterer interferometry (PSI) data. PSI displacement measurements are interpolated based on conditional Sequential Gaussian Simulation (SGS) to calculate multiple equiprobable realizations of subsidence. The result from this process is a series of interpolated subsidence values, with an estimation of the spatial variability and a confidence level on the interpolation. These maps complement the PSI displacement map, improving the identification of wide subsiding areas at a regional scale. At a local scale, they can be used to identify buildings susceptible to suffer subsidence related damages. In order to do so, it is necessary to calculate the maximum differential settlement and the maximum angular distortion for each building of the study area. Based on PSI-derived parameters those buildings in which the serviceability limit state has been exceeded, and where in situ forensic analysis should be made, can be automatically identified. This methodology has been tested in the city of Orihuela (SE Spain) for the study of historical buildings damaged during the last two decades by subsidence due to aquifer overexploitation. The qualitative evaluation of the results from the methodology carried out in buildings where damages have been reported shows a success rate of 100%.

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Background: Intimate partner violence (IPV) against women is a complex worldwide public health problem. There is scarce research on the independent effect on IPV exerted by structural factors such as labour and economic policies, economic inequalities and gender inequality. Objective: To analyse the association, in Spain, between contextual variables of regional unemployment and income inequality and individual women’s likelihood of IPV, independently of the women’s characteristics. Method: We conducted multilevel logistic regression to analyse cross-sectional data from the 2011 Spanish Macrosurvey of Gender-based Violence which included 7898 adult women. The first level of analyses was the individual women’ characteristics and the second level was the region of residence. Results: Of the survey participants, 12.2% reported lifetime IPV. The region of residence accounted for 3.5% of the total variability in IPV prevalence. We determined a direct association between regional male long-term unemployment and IPV likelihood (P = 0.007) and between the Gini Index for the regional income inequality and IPV likelihood (P < 0.001). Women residing in a region with higher gender-based income discrimination are at a lower likelihood of IPV than those residing in a region with low gender-based income discrimination (odds ratio = 0.64, 95% confidence intervals: 0.55–0.75). Conclusions: Growing regional unemployment rates and income inequalities increase women’s likelihood of IPV. In times of economic downturn, like the current one in Spain, this association may translate into an increase in women’s vulnerability to IPV.