Intimate partner violence among women in Spain: the impact of regional-level male unemployment and income inequality

Background: Intimate partner violence (IPV) against women is a complex worldwide public health problem. There is scarce research on the independent effect on IPV exerted by structural factors such as labour and economic policies, economic inequalities and gender inequality. Objective: To analyse the association, in Spain, between contextual variables of regional unemployment and income inequality and individual women’s likelihood of IPV, independently of the women’s characteristics. Method: We conducted multilevel logistic regression to analyse cross-sectional data from the 2011 Spanish Macrosurvey of Gender-based Violence which included 7898 adult women. The first level of analyses was the individual women’ characteristics and the second level was the region of residence. Results: Of the survey participants, 12.2% reported lifetime IPV. The region of residence accounted for 3.5% of the total variability in IPV prevalence. We determined a direct association between regional male long-term unemployment and IPV likelihood (P = 0.007) and between the Gini Index for the regional income inequality and IPV likelihood (P < 0.001). Women residing in a region with higher gender-based income discrimination are at a lower likelihood of IPV than those residing in a region with low gender-based income discrimination (odds ratio = 0.64, 95% confidence intervals: 0.55–0.75). Conclusions: Growing regional unemployment rates and income inequalities increase women’s likelihood of IPV. In times of economic downturn, like the current one in Spain, this association may translate into an increase in women’s vulnerability to IPV.

No effect of unemployment on intimate partner-related femicide during the financial crisis: a longitudinal ecological study in Spain

Background: Spain’s financial crisis has been characterized by an increase in unemployment. This increase could have produced an increase in deaths of women due to intimate partner-related femicides (IPF). This study aims to determine whether the increase in unemployment among both sexes in different regions in Spain is related to an increase in the rates of IPF during the current financial crisis period. Methods: An ecological longitudinal study was carried out in Spain’s 17 regions. Two study periods were defined: pre-crisis period (2005–2007) and crisis period (2008–2013). IPF rates adjusted by age and unemployment rates for men and women were calculated. We fitted multilevel linear regression models in which observations at level 1 were nested within regions according to a repeated measurements design. Results: Rates of unemployment have progressively increased in Spain, rising above 20 % from 2008 to 2013 in some regions. IPF rates decreased in some regions during crisis period with respect to pre-crisis period. The multilevel analysis does not support the existence of a significant relationship between the increase in unemployment in men and women and the decrease in IPF since 2008. Discussion: The increase in unemployment in men and women in Spain does not appear to have an effect on IPF. The results of the multilevel analysis discard the hypothesis that the increase in the rates of unemployment in women and men are related to an increase in IPF rates. Conclusions: The decline in IPF since 2008 might be interpreted as the result of exposure to other factors such as the lower frequency of divorces in recent years or the medium term effects of the integral protection measures of the law on gender violence that began in 2005.

Conditional Order-m Efficiency of Wastewater Treatment Plants: The Role of Environmental Factors

The growing economic and environmental importance of managing water resources at a global level also entails greater efforts and interest in improving the functioning and efficiency of the increasingly more numerous wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs). In this context, this study analyzes the efficiency of a uniform sample of plants of this type located in the region of Valencia (Spain). The type of efficiency measure used for this (conditional order-m efficiency) allows continuous and discrete contextual variables to be directly involved in the analysis and enables the assessment of their statistical significance and effect (positive or negative). The main findings of the study showed that the quality of the influent water and also the size and age of the plants had a significant influence on their efficiency levels. In particular, as regards the effect of such variables, the findings pointed to the existence of an inverse relationship between the quality of the influent water and the efficiency of the WWTPs. Also, a lower annual volume of treated water and more modern installations showed a positive influence. Additionally, the average efficiency levels observed turned out to be higher than those reported in previous studies.

Forecasting Elections with High Volatility

This article uses data from the social survey Allbus 1998 to introduce a method of forecasting elections in a context of electoral volatility. The approach models the processes of change in electoral behaviour, exploring patterns in order to model the volatility expressed by voters. The forecast is based on the matrix of transition probabilities, following the logic of Markov chains. The power of the matrix, and the use of the mover-stayer model, is debated for alternative forecasts. As an example of high volatility, the model uses data from the German general election of 1998. The unification of two German states in 1990 caused the incorporation of around 15 million new voters from East Germany who had limited familiarity and no direct experience of the political culture in West Germany. Under these circumstances, voters were expected to show high volatility.

Semantic change and intersubjectification: The origin of reprise evidential conditional in Old Catalan

The reprise evidential conditional (REC) is nowadays not very usual in Catalan: it is restricted to journalistic language and to some very formal genres (such as academic or legal language), it is not present in spontaneous discourse. On the one hand, it has been described among the rather new modality values of the conditional. On the other, the normative tradition tended to reject it for being a gallicism, or to describe it as an unsuitable neologism. Thanks to the extraction from text corpora, we surprisingly find this REC in Catalan from the beginning of the fourteenth century to the contemporary age, with semantic and pragmatic nuances and different evidence of grammaticalization. Due to the current interest in evidentiality, the REC has been widely studied in French, Italian and Portuguese, focusing mainly on its contemporary uses and not so intensively on the diachronic process that could explain the origin of this value. In line with this research, that we initiated studying the epistemic and evidential future in Catalan, our aim is to describe: a) the pragmatic context that could have been the initial point of the REC in the thirteenth century, before we find indisputable attestations of this use; b) the path of semantic change followed by the conditional from a ‘future in the past’ tense to the acquisition of epistemic and evidential values; and c) the role played by invited inferences, subjectification and intersubjectification in this change.