Forecasting Elections with High Volatility

This article uses data from the social survey Allbus 1998 to introduce a method of forecasting elections in a context of electoral volatility. The approach models the processes of change in electoral behaviour, exploring patterns in order to model the volatility expressed by voters. The forecast is based on the matrix of transition probabilities, following the logic of Markov chains. The power of the matrix, and the use of the mover-stayer model, is debated for alternative forecasts. As an example of high volatility, the model uses data from the German general election of 1998. The unification of two German states in 1990 caused the incorporation of around 15 million new voters from East Germany who had limited familiarity and no direct experience of the political culture in West Germany. Under these circumstances, voters were expected to show high volatility.

On the forbidden gap of finite graphene nanoribbons

The electronic structure of isolated finite graphene nanoribbons is investigated by solving, at the Hartree-Fock (HF) level, the Pariser, Parr and Pople (PPP) many-body Hamiltonian. The study is mainly focused on 7-AGNR and 13-AGNR (Armchair Graphene Nano-Ribbons), whose electronic structures have been recently experimentally investigated. Only paramagnetic solutions are considered. The characteristics of the forbidden gap are studied as a function of the ribbon length. For a 7-AGNR, the gap monotonically decreases from a maximum value of ~6.5 eV for short nanoribbons to a very small value of ~0.12 eV for the longer calculated systems. Gap edges are defined by molecular orbitals that are spatially localized near the nanoribbon extremes, that is, near both zig-zag edges. On the other hand, two delocalized orbitals define a much larger gap of about 5 eV. Conductance measurements report a somewhat smaller gap of ~3 eV. The small real gap lies in the middle of the one given by extended states and has been observed by STM and reproduced by DFT calculations. On the other hand, the length dependence of the gap is not monotonous for a 13-AGNR. It decreases initially but sharply increases for lengths beyond 30 Å remaining almost constant thereafter at a value of ~2.1 eV. Two additional states localized at the nanoribbon extremes show up at energies 0.31 eV below the HOMO (Highest Occupied Molecular Orbital) and above the LUMO (Lowest Unoccupied Molecular Orbital). These numbers compare favorably with those recently obtained by means of STS for a 13-AGNR sustained by a gold surface, namely 1.4 eV for the energy gap and 0.4 eV for the position of localized band edges. We show that the important differences between 7- and 13-AGNR should be ascribed to the charge rearrangement near the zig-zag edges obtained in our calculations for ribbons longer than 30 Å, a feature that does not show up for a 7-AGNR no matter its length.

Impurity states in the quantum spin Hall phase in graphene

Two-dimensional insulators with time-reversal symmetry can have two topologically different phases, the quantum spin Hall and the normal phase. The former is revealed by the existence of conducting edge states that are topologically protected. Here we show that the reaction to impurity, in bulk, is radically different in the two phases and can be used as a marker for the topological phase. Within the context of the Kane-Mele model for graphene, we find that strictly normalizable in-gap impurity states only occur in the quantum spin Hall phase and carry a dissipationless current whose chirality is determined by the spin and pseudospin of the residing electron.

Optical control of the spin state of two Mn atoms in a quantum dot

We report on the optical spectroscopy of the spin of two magnetic atoms (Mn) embedded in an individual quantum dot interacting with a single electron, a single exciton, or a single trion. As a result of their interaction to a common entity, the Mn spins become correlated. The dynamics of this process is probed by time-resolved spectroscopy, which permits us to determine an optical orientation time in the range of a few tens of nanoseconds. In addition, we show that the energy of the collective spin states of the two Mn atoms can be tuned through the optical Stark effect induced by a resonant laser field.

Spin-filtered edge states in graphene

Spin–orbit coupling changes graphene, in principle, into a two-dimensional topological insulator, also known as quantum spin Hall insulator. One of the expected consequences is the existence of spin-filtered edge states that carry dissipationless spin currents and undergo no backscattering in the presence of non-magnetic disorder, leading to quantization of conductance. Whereas, due to the small size of spin–orbit coupling in graphene, the experimental observation of these remarkable predictions is unlikely, the theoretical understanding of these spin-filtered states is shedding light on the electronic properties of edge states in other two-dimensional quantum spin Hall insulators. Here we review the effect of a variety of perturbations, like curvature, disorder, edge reconstruction, edge crystallographic orientation, and Coulomb interactions on the electronic properties of these spin filtered states.

Exponential decay of spin-spin correlation between distant defect states produced by contour hydrogenation of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon molecules

The first few low-lying spin states of alternant polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) molecules of several shapes showing defect states induced by contour hydrogenation have been studied both by ab initio methods and by a precise numerical solution of Pariser-Parr-Pople (PPP) interacting model. In accordance with Lieb's theorem, the ground state shows a spin multiplicity equal to one for balanced molecules, and it gets larger values for imbalanced molecules (that is, when the number of π electrons on both subsets is not equal). Furthermore, we find a systematic decrease of the singlet-triplet splitting as a function of the distance between defects, regardless of whether the ground state is singlet or triplet. For example, a splitting smaller than 0.001 eV is obtained for a medium size C46H28 PAH molecule (di-hydrogenated [11]phenacene) showing a singlet ground state. We conclude that π electrons unbound by lattice defects tend to remain localized and unpaired even when long-range Coulomb interaction is taken into account. Therefore they show a biradical character (polyradical character for more than two defects) and should be studied as two or more local doublets. The implications for electron transport are potentially important since these unpaired electrons can trap traveling electrons or simply flip their spin at a very small energy cost.

Transport across two interacting quantum dots: Bulk Kondo, Kondo box, and molecular regimes

We analyze the transport properties of a double quantum dot device with both dots coupled to perfect conducting leads and to a finite chain of N noninteracting sites connecting both of them. The interdot chain strongly influences the transport across the system and the local density of states of the dots. We study the case of a small number of sites, so that Kondo box effects are present, varying the coupling between the dots and the chain. For odd N and small coupling between the interdot chain and the dots, a state with two coexisting Kondo regimes develops: the bulk Kondo due to the quantum dots connected to leads and the one produced by the screening of the quantum dot spins by the spin in the finite chain at the Fermi level. As the coupling to the interdot chain increases, there is a crossover to a molecular Kondo effect, due to the screening of the molecule (formed by the finite chain and the quantum dots) spin by the leads. For even N the two Kondo temperatures regime does not develop and the physics is dominated by the usual competition between Kondo and antiferromagnetism between the quantum dots. We finally study how the transport properties are affected as N is increased. For the study we used exact multiconfigurational Lanczos calculations and finite-U slave-boson mean-field theory at T=0. The results obtained with both methods describe qualitatively and also quantitatively the same physics.

Contribution to Real-Time Estimation of Crop Phenological States in a Dynamical Framework Based on NDVI Time Series: Data Fusion With SAR and Temperature

In this study, a methodology based in a dynamical framework is proposed to incorporate additional sources of information to normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) time series of agricultural observations for a phenological state estimation application. The proposed implementation is based on the particle filter (PF) scheme that is able to integrate multiple sources of data. Moreover, the dynamics-led design is able to conduct real-time (online) estimations, i.e., without requiring to wait until the end of the campaign. The evaluation of the algorithm is performed by estimating the phenological states over a set of rice fields in Seville (SW, Spain). A Landsat-5/7 NDVI series of images is complemented with two distinct sources of information: SAR images from the TerraSAR-X satellite and air temperature information from a ground-based station. An improvement in the overall estimation accuracy is obtained, especially when the time series of NDVI data is incomplete. Evaluations on the sensitivity to different development intervals and on the mitigation of discontinuities of the time series are also addressed in this work, demonstrating the benefits of this data fusion approach based on the dynamic systems.