7 resultados para Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Time-Series Models

em Universidad de Alicante


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Moderate resolution remote sensing data, as provided by MODIS, can be used to detect and map active or past wildfires from daily records of suitable combinations of reflectance bands. The objective of the present work was to develop and test simple algorithms and variations for automatic or semiautomatic detection of burnt areas from time series data of MODIS biweekly vegetation indices for a Mediterranean region. MODIS-derived NDVI 250m time series data for the Valencia region, East Spain, were subjected to a two-step process for the detection of candidate burnt areas, and the results compared with available fire event records from the Valencia Regional Government. For each pixel and date in the data series, a model was fitted to both the previous and posterior time series data. Combining drops between two consecutive points and 1-year average drops, we used discrepancies or jumps between the pre and post models to identify seed pixels, and then delimitated fire scars for each potential wildfire using an extension algorithm from the seed pixels. The resulting maps of the detected burnt areas showed a very good agreement with the perimeters registered in the database of fire records used as reference. Overall accuracies and indices of agreement were very high, and omission and commission errors were similar or lower than in previous studies that used automatic or semiautomatic fire scar detection based on remote sensing. This supports the effectiveness of the method for detecting and mapping burnt areas in the Mediterranean region.

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Frequently, population ecology of marine organisms uses a descriptive approach in which their sizes and densities are plotted over time. This approach has limited usefulness for design strategies in management or modelling different scenarios. Population projection matrix models are among the most widely used tools in ecology. Unfortunately, for the majority of pelagic marine organisms, it is difficult to mark individuals and follow them over time to determine their vital rates and built a population projection matrix model. Nevertheless, it is possible to get time-series data to calculate size structure and densities of each size, in order to determine the matrix parameters. This approach is known as a “demographic inverse problem” and it is based on quadratic programming methods, but it has rarely been used on aquatic organisms. We used unpublished field data of a population of cubomedusae Carybdea marsupialis to construct a population projection matrix model and compare two different management strategies to lower population to values before year 2008 when there was no significant interaction with bathers. Those strategies were by direct removal of medusae and by reducing prey. Our results showed that removal of jellyfish from all size classes was more effective than removing only juveniles or adults. When reducing prey, the highest efficiency to lower the C. marsupialis population occurred when prey depletion affected prey of all medusae sizes. Our model fit well with the field data and may serve to design an efficient management strategy or build hypothetical scenarios such as removal of individuals or reducing prey. TThis This sdfsdshis method is applicable to other marine or terrestrial species, for which density and population structure over time are available.

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The Lomb periodogram has been traditionally a tool that allows us to elucidate if a frequency turns out to be important for explaining the behaviour of a given time series. Many linear and nonlinear reiterative harmonic processes that are used for studying the spectral content of a time series take into account this periodogram in order to avoid including spurious frequencies in their models due to the leakage problem of energy from one frequency to others. However, the estimation of the periodogram requires long computation time that makes the harmonic analysis slower when we deal with certain time series. Here we propose an algorithm that accelerates the extraction of the most remarkable frequencies from the periodogram, avoiding its whole estimation of the harmonic process at each iteration. This algorithm allows the user to perform a specific analysis of a given scalar time series. As a result, we obtain a functional model made of (1) a trend component, (2) a linear combination of Fourier terms, and (3) the so-called mixed secular terms by reducing the computation time of the estimation of the periodogram.

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The Tertiary detritic aquifer of Madrid (TDAM), with an average thickness of 1500 m and a heterogeneous, anisotropic structure, supplies water to Madrid, the most populated city of Spain (3.2 million inhabitants in the metropolitan area). Besides its complex structure, a previous work focused in the north-northwest of Madrid city showed that the aquifer behaves quasi elastically trough extraction/recovery cycles and ground uplifting during recovery periods compensates most of the ground subsidence measured during previous extraction periods (Ezquerro et al., 2014). Therefore, the relationship between ground deformation and groundwater level through time can be simulated using simple elastic models. In this work, we model the temporal evolution of the piezometric level in 19 wells of the TDAM in the period 1997–2010. Using InSAR and piezometric time series spanning the studied period, we first estimate the elastic storage coefficient (Ske) for every well. Both, the Ske of each well and the average Ske of all wells, are used to predict hydraulic heads at the different well locations during the study period and compared against the measured hydraulic heads, leading to very similar errors when using the Ske of each well and the average Ske of all wells: 14 and 16 % on average respectively. This result suggests that an average Ske can be used to estimate piezometric level variations in all the points where ground deformation has been measured by InSAR, thus allowing production of piezometric level maps for the different extraction/recovery cycles in the TDAM.

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In this study, a methodology based in a dynamical framework is proposed to incorporate additional sources of information to normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) time series of agricultural observations for a phenological state estimation application. The proposed implementation is based on the particle filter (PF) scheme that is able to integrate multiple sources of data. Moreover, the dynamics-led design is able to conduct real-time (online) estimations, i.e., without requiring to wait until the end of the campaign. The evaluation of the algorithm is performed by estimating the phenological states over a set of rice fields in Seville (SW, Spain). A Landsat-5/7 NDVI series of images is complemented with two distinct sources of information: SAR images from the TerraSAR-X satellite and air temperature information from a ground-based station. An improvement in the overall estimation accuracy is obtained, especially when the time series of NDVI data is incomplete. Evaluations on the sensitivity to different development intervals and on the mitigation of discontinuities of the time series are also addressed in this work, demonstrating the benefits of this data fusion approach based on the dynamic systems.

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A MATLAB-based computer code has been developed for the simultaneous wavelet analysis and filtering of several environmental time series, particularly focused on the analyses of cave monitoring data. The continuous wavelet transform, the discrete wavelet transform and the discrete wavelet packet transform have been implemented to provide a fast and precise time–period examination of the time series at different period bands. Moreover, statistic methods to examine the relation between two signals have been included. Finally, the entropy of curves and splines based methods have also been developed for segmenting and modeling the analyzed time series. All these methods together provide a user-friendly and fast program for the environmental signal analysis, with useful, practical and understandable results.

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Information of crop phenology is essential for evaluating crop productivity. In a previous work, we determined phenological stages with remote sensing data using a dynamic system framework and an extended Kalman filter (EKF) approach. In this paper, we demonstrate that the particle filter is a more reliable method to infer any phenological stage compared to the EKF. The improvements achieved with this approach are discussed. In addition, this methodology enables the estimation of key cultivation dates, thus providing a practical product for many applications. The dates of some important stages, as the sowing date and the day when the crop reaches the panicle initiation stage, have been chosen to show the potential of this technique.