Handling of Uncertainty in Life Cycle Inventory by Correlated Multivariate Lognormal Distributions: Application to the Design of Supply Chain Networks

Poster presented in the 24th European Symposium on Computer Aided Process Engineering (ESCAPE 24), Budapest, Hungary, June 15-18, 2014.

Handling of Uncertainty in Life Cycle Inventory by Correlated Multivariate Lognormal Distributions: Application to the Design of Supply Chain Networks

In this work, we analyze the effect of incorporating life cycle inventory (LCI) uncertainty on the multi-objective optimization of chemical supply chains (SC) considering simultaneously their economic and environmental performance. To this end, we present a stochastic multi-scenario mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) coupled with a two-step transformation scenario generation algorithm with the unique feature of providing scenarios where the LCI random variables are correlated and each one of them has the desired lognormal marginal distribution. The environmental performance is quantified following life cycle assessment (LCA) principles, which are represented in the model formulation through standard algebraic equations. The capabilities of our approach are illustrated through a case study of a petrochemical supply chain. We show that the stochastic solution improves the economic performance of the SC in comparison with the deterministic one at any level of the environmental impact, and moreover the correlation among environmental burdens provides more realistic scenarios for the decision making process.

Life-cycle portfolio choice with liquid and illiquid financial assets

Traditionally, quantitative models that have studied households׳ portfolio choices have focused exclusively on the different risk properties of alternative financial assets. We introduce differences in liquidity across assets in the standard life-cycle model of portfolio choice. More precisely, in our model, stocks are subject to transaction costs, as considered in recent macroliterature. We show that when these costs are calibrated to match the observed infrequency of households׳ trading, the model is able to generate patterns of portfolio stock allocation over age and wealth that are constant or moderately increasing, thus more in line with the existing empirical evidence.

El Turismo Residencial en Valle de Bravo, México. Una Interpretación de su Ciclo de Vida

El turismo residencial en Valle de Bravo (Estado de México) surge a partir de la consolidación de su presa, iniciando un proceso de transformación no sólo paisajística, sino territorial y socioeconómica, el cual además, ha marcado la pauta para llevar a este destino a convertirse en uno de los sitios turísticos más importantes del Estado de México. El presente artículo tiene como objetivo realizar una caracterización territorial y urbana de las etapas que ha tenido Valle de Bravo debido a la proliferación de residencias desde sus inicios como sitio turístico hasta la época actual, analizando su posible tendencia de crecimiento para los próximos años. Para poder realizar este análisis, se utilizó el modelo del Ciclo de Vida Turístico en el que diversas variables cuantitativas y cualitativas fueron utilizadas para ejemplificar cómo ha ido evolucionando Valle de Bravo. A través de éste análisis se demuestra que la zona está acercándose a límites de capacidad de carga, lo cual supone un mayor impacto en la zona principalmente en sus recursos más importantes: el espacio físico y, su alto valor paisajístico y natural.