Política de la República Federal de Alemania hacia España durante el franquismo y la transición (1949-1979)

En este artículo se realiza un análisis de la evolución de la política que la República Federal de Alemania (RFA) desarrolló hacia España durante las tres décadas que separan la creación del joven Estado federal y la entrada en vigor de la Constitución Española. Sin tratar de abarcar todos y cada uno de los asuntos que la caracterizaron, se pretende estudiar la conformación de los grandes vectores que la articularon y su paulatina transformación, en sintonía con la evolución internacional y la de ambos países.

Forecasting Elections with High Volatility

This article uses data from the social survey Allbus 1998 to introduce a method of forecasting elections in a context of electoral volatility. The approach models the processes of change in electoral behaviour, exploring patterns in order to model the volatility expressed by voters. The forecast is based on the matrix of transition probabilities, following the logic of Markov chains. The power of the matrix, and the use of the mover-stayer model, is debated for alternative forecasts. As an example of high volatility, the model uses data from the German general election of 1998. The unification of two German states in 1990 caused the incorporation of around 15 million new voters from East Germany who had limited familiarity and no direct experience of the political culture in West Germany. Under these circumstances, voters were expected to show high volatility.