Participation and performance trends in 6-hour ultra-marathoners – a retrospective data analysis of worldwide participation from 1991-2010

Participation trends in 6-hour ultra-marathons held word-wide were investigated to gain basic demographic data on 6-hour ultra-marathoners and where these races took place. Participation trends and the association between nationality and race performance were investigated in all 6-hour races held worldwide between 1991 and 2010. Participation increased linearly in both women and men across years. The annual number of finishes was significantly higher in men than in women (P=0.013). The male-to-female ratio remained stable at ~4 since 1991. Runners in age group 45-49 years showed the largest increase in participation for both men (800 participants in 18 years) and women (208 participants in 16 years). Europe attracted most of the runners from other continents (166 runners), more than all other continents combined (55 runners). European runners also showed the best top ten performances (73±3 km for women and 77±11 km for men), while African (with 65±9 km for men) and South American (54±4 km for women and 65±2 km for men) runners showed the weakest. To summarize, participation in 6-hour ultra-marathons increased across years. Most of the development took place in Europe and in athletes in the age group 45-49 years. Europe also attracted the most diverse field of athletes with runners from all other continents. European runners accounted for the most runners and achieved the best top ten performances.

Data analysis using circular causality in networks

Complex systems in causal relationships are known to be circular rather than linear; this means that a particular result is not produced by a single cause, but rather that both positive and negative feedback processes are involved. However, although interpreting systemic interrelationships requires a language formed by circles, this has only been developed at the diagram level, and not from an axiomatic point of view. The first difficulty encountered when analysing any complex system is that usually the only data available relate to the various variables, so the first objective was to transform these data into cause-and-effect relationships. Once this initial step was taken, our discrete chaos theory could be applied by finding the causal circles that will form part of the system attractor and allow their behavior to be interpreted. As an application of the technique presented, we analyzed the system associated with the transcription factors of inflammatory diseases.

A Sociocybernetics Data Analysis Using Causality in Tourism Networks

The aim of this paper is to propose a mathematical model to determine invariant sets, set covering, orbits and, in particular, attractors in the set of tourism variables. Analysis was carried out based on a pre-designed algorithm and applying our interpretation of chaos theory developed in the context of General Systems Theory. This article sets out the causal relationships associated with tourist flows in order to enable the formulation of appropriate strategies. Our results can be applied to numerous cases. For example, in the analysis of tourist flows, these findings can be used to determine whether the behaviour of certain groups affects that of other groups and to analyse tourist behaviour in terms of the most relevant variables. Unlike statistical analyses that merely provide information on current data, our method uses orbit analysis to forecast, if attractors are found, the behaviour of tourist variables in the immediate future.

Métodos de máxima verosimilitud en ecología y su aplicación en modelos de vecindad

Los métodos de máxima verosimilitud (MMV) ofrecen un marco alternativo a la estadística frecuentista convencional, alejándose del uso del p-valor para el rechazo de una única hipótesis nula y optando por el uso de las verosimilitudes para evaluar el grado de apoyo en los datos a un conjunto de hipótesis alternativas (o modelos) de interés para el investigador. Estos métodos han sido ampliamente aplicados en ecología en el marco de los modelos de vecindad. Dichos modelos usan una aproximación espacialmente explícita para describir procesos demográficos de plantas o procesos ecosistémicos en función de los atributos de los individuos vecinos. Se trata por tanto de modelos fenomenológicos cuya principal utilidad radica en funcionar como herramientas de síntesis de los múltiples mecanismos por los que las especies pueden interactuar e influenciar su entorno, proporcionando una medida del efecto per cápita de individuos de distintas características (ej. tamaño, especie, rasgos fisiológicos) sobre los procesos de interés. La gran ventaja de aplicar los MMV en el marco de los modelos de vecindad es que permite ajustar y comparar múltiples modelos que usen distintos atributos de los vecinos y/o formas funcionales para seleccionar aquel con mayor soporte empírico. De esta manera, cada modelo funcionará como un “experimento virtual” para responder preguntas relacionadas con la magnitud y extensión espacial de los efectos de distintas especies coexistentes, y extraer conclusiones sobre posibles implicaciones para el funcionamiento de comunidades y ecosistemas. Este trabajo sintetiza las técnicas de implementación de los MMV y los modelos de vecindad en ecología terrestre, resumiendo su uso hasta la fecha y destacando nuevas líneas de aplicación.

Gaia-ESO Survey: Analysis of pre-main sequence stellar spectra

Context. The Gaia-ESO Public Spectroscopic Survey is obtaining high-quality spectroscopy of some 100 000 Milky Way stars using the FLAMES spectrograph at the VLT, down to V = 19 mag, systematically covering all the main components of the Milky Way and providing the first homogeneous overview of the distributions of kinematics and chemical element abundances in the Galaxy. Observations of young open clusters, in particular, are giving new insights into their initial structure, kinematics, and their subsequent evolution. Aims. This paper describes the analysis of UVES and GIRAFFE spectra acquired in the fields of young clusters whose population includes pre-main sequence (PMS) stars. The analysis is applied to all stars in such fields, regardless of any prior information on membership, and provides fundamental stellar atmospheric parameters, elemental abundances, and PMS-specific parameters such as veiling, accretion, and chromospheric activity. Methods. When feasible, different methods were used to derive raw parameters (e.g. line equivalent widths) fundamental atmospheric parameters and derived parameters (e.g. abundances). To derive some of these parameters, we used methods that have been extensively used in the past and new ones developed in the context of the Gaia-ESO survey enterprise. The internal precision of these quantities was estimated by inter-comparing the results obtained by these different methods, while the accuracy was estimated by comparison with independent external data, such as effective temperature and surface gravity derived from angular diameter measurements, on a sample of benchmarks stars. A validation procedure based on these comparisons was applied to discard spurious or doubtful results and produce recommended parameters. Specific strategies were implemented to resolve problems of fast rotation, accretion signatures, chromospheric activity, and veiling. Results. The analysis carried out on spectra acquired in young cluster fields during the first 18 months of observations, up to June 2013, is presented in preparation of the first release of advanced data products. These include targets in the fields of the ρ Oph, Cha I, NGC 2264, γ Vel, and NGC 2547 clusters. Stellar parameters obtained with the higher resolution and larger wavelength coverage from UVES are reproduced with comparable accuracy and precision using the smaller wavelength range and lower resolution of the GIRAFFE setup adopted for young stars, which allows us to provide stellar parameters with confidence for the much larger GIRAFFE sample. Precisions are estimated to be ≈120 K rms in Teff, ≈0.3 dex rms in log g, and ≈0.15 dex rms in [Fe/H] for the UVES and GIRAFFE setups.

The Gaia-ESO Survey: The analysis of high-resolution UVES spectra of FGK-type stars

Context. The ongoing Gaia-ESO Public Spectroscopic Survey is using FLAMES at the VLT to obtain high-quality medium-resolution Giraffe spectra for about 105 stars and high-resolution UVES spectra for about 5000 stars. With UVES, the Survey has already observed 1447 FGK-type stars. Aims. These UVES spectra are analyzed in parallel by several state-of-the-art methodologies. Our aim is to present how these analyses were implemented, to discuss their results, and to describe how a final recommended parameter scale is defined. We also discuss the precision (method-to-method dispersion) and accuracy (biases with respect to the reference values) of the final parameters. These results are part of the Gaia-ESO second internal release and will be part of its first public release of advanced data products. Methods. The final parameter scale is tied to the scale defined by the Gaia benchmark stars, a set of stars with fundamental atmospheric parameters. In addition, a set of open and globular clusters is used to evaluate the physical soundness of the results. Each of the implemented methodologies is judged against the benchmark stars to define weights in three different regions of the parameter space. The final recommended results are the weighted medians of those from the individual methods. Results. The recommended results successfully reproduce the atmospheric parameters of the benchmark stars and the expected Teff-log  g relation of the calibrating clusters. Atmospheric parameters and abundances have been determined for 1301 FGK-type stars observed with UVES. The median of the method-to-method dispersion of the atmospheric parameters is 55 K for Teff, 0.13 dex for log  g and 0.07 dex for [Fe/H]. Systematic biases are estimated to be between 50−100 K for Teff, 0.10−0.25 dex for log  g and 0.05−0.10 dex for [Fe/H]. Abundances for 24 elements were derived: C, N, O, Na, Mg, Al, Si, Ca, Sc, Ti, V, Cr, Mn, Fe, Co, Ni, Cu, Zn, Y, Zr, Mo, Ba, Nd, and Eu. The typical method-to-method dispersion of the abundances varies between 0.10 and 0.20 dex. Conclusions. The Gaia-ESO sample of high-resolution spectra of FGK-type stars will be among the largest of its kind analyzed in a homogeneous way. The extensive list of elemental abundances derived in these stars will enable significant advances in the areas of stellar evolution and Milky Way formation and evolution.