Macroecología y ecoinformática: sesgos, errores y predicciones en el modelado de distribuciones

Hoy en día es común estudiar los patrones globales de biodiversidad a partir de las predicciones generadas por diferentes modelos de nicho ecológico. Habitualmente, estos modelos se calibran con datos procedentes de bases de datos de libre acceso (e.g. GBIF). Sin embargo, a pesar de la facilidad de descarga y de la accesibilidad de los datos, la información almacenada sobre las localidades donde están presentes las especies suele tener sesgos y errores. Estos problemas en los datos de calibración pueden modificar drásticamente las predicciones de los modelos y con ello pueden enmascarar los patrones macroecológicos reales. El objetivo de este trabajo es investigar qué métodos producen resultados más precisos cuando los datos de calibración incluyen sesgos y cuáles producen mejores resultados cuando los datos de calibración tienen, además de sesgos, errores. Para ello creado una especie virtual, hemos proyectado su distribución en la península ibérica, hemos muestreado su distribución de manera sesgada y hemos calibrado dos tipos de modelos de distribución (Bioclim y Maxent) con muestras de distintos tamaños. Nuestros resultados indican que cuando los datos sólo están sesgados, los resultados de Bioclim son mejores que los de Maxent. Sin embargo, Bioclim es extremadamente sensible a la presencia de errores en los datos de calibración. En estas situaciones, el comportamiento de Maxent es mucho más robusto y las predicciones que proporciona son más ajustadas.

GE models and algorithms for condensed phase equilibrium data regression in ternary systems: limitations and proposals

Phase equilibrium data regression is an unavoidable task necessary to obtain the appropriate values for any model to be used in separation equipment design for chemical process simulation and optimization. The accuracy of this process depends on different factors such as the experimental data quality, the selected model and the calculation algorithm. The present paper summarizes the results and conclusions achieved in our research on the capabilities and limitations of the existing GE models and about strategies that can be included in the correlation algorithms to improve the convergence and avoid inconsistencies. The NRTL model has been selected as a representative local composition model. New capabilities of this model, but also several relevant limitations, have been identified and some examples of the application of a modified NRTL equation have been discussed. Furthermore, a regression algorithm has been developed that allows for the advisable simultaneous regression of all the condensed phase equilibrium regions that are present in ternary systems at constant T and P. It includes specific strategies designed to avoid some of the pitfalls frequently found in commercial regression tools for phase equilibrium calculations. Most of the proposed strategies are based on the geometrical interpretation of the lowest common tangent plane equilibrium criterion, which allows an unambiguous comprehension of the behavior of the mixtures. The paper aims to show all the work as a whole in order to reveal the necessary efforts that must be devoted to overcome the difficulties that still exist in the phase equilibrium data regression problem.

Exact and analytic-numerical solutions of lagging models of heat transfer in a semi-infinite medium

Different non-Fourier models of heat conduction have been considered in recent years, in a growing area of applications, to model microscale and ultrafast, transient, nonequilibrium responses in heat and mass transfer. In this work, using Fourier transforms, we obtain exact solutions for different lagging models of heat conduction in a semi-infinite domain, which allow the construction of analytic-numerical solutions with prescribed accuracy. Examples of numerical computations, comparing the properties of the models considered, are presented.

Amphibian Hotspots and Conservation Priorities in Eastern Cuba Identified by Species Distribution Modeling

The high rate of amphibian endemism and the severe habitat modification in the Caribbean islands make them an ideal place to test if the current protected areas network might protect this group. In this study, we model distribution and map species richness of the 40 amphibian species from eastern Cuba with the objectives of identify hotspots, detect gaps in species representation in protected areas, and select additional areas to fill these gaps. We used two modeling methods, Maxent and Habitat Suitability Models, to reach a consensus distribution map for each species, then calculate species richness by combining specific models and finally performed gap analyses for species and hotspots. Our results showed that the models were robust enough to predict species distributions and that most of the amphibian hotspots were represented in reserves, but 50 percent of the species were incompletely covered and Eleutherodactylus rivularis was totally uncovered by the protected areas. We identified 1441 additional km2 (9.9% of the study area) that could be added to the current protected areas, allowing the representation of every species and all hotspots. Our results are relevant for the conservation planning in other Caribbean islands, since studies like this could contribute to fill the gaps in the existing protected areas and to design a future network. Both cases would benefit from modeling amphibian species distribution using available data, even if they are incomplete, rather than relying only in the protection of known or suspected hotspots.

Chebanov law and Vakar formula in mathematical models of complex systems

Ecological models written in a mathematical language L(M) or model language, with a given style or methodology can be considered as a text. It is possible to apply statistical linguistic laws and the experimental results demonstrate that the behaviour of a mathematical model is the same of any literary text of any natural language. A text has the following characteristics: (a) the variables, its transformed functions and parameters are the lexic units or LUN of ecological models; (b) the syllables are constituted by a LUN, or a chain of them, separated by operating or ordering LUNs; (c) the flow equations are words; and (d) the distribution of words (LUM and CLUN) according to their lengths is based on a Poisson distribution, the Chebanov's law. It is founded on Vakar's formula, that is calculated likewise the linguistic entropy for L(M). We will apply these ideas over practical examples using MARIOLA model. In this paper it will be studied the problem of the lengths of the simple lexic units composed lexic units and words of text models, expressing these lengths in number of the primitive symbols, and syllables. The use of these linguistic laws renders it possible to indicate the degree of information given by an ecological model.