Forecasting Elections with High Volatility

This article uses data from the social survey Allbus 1998 to introduce a method of forecasting elections in a context of electoral volatility. The approach models the processes of change in electoral behaviour, exploring patterns in order to model the volatility expressed by voters. The forecast is based on the matrix of transition probabilities, following the logic of Markov chains. The power of the matrix, and the use of the mover-stayer model, is debated for alternative forecasts. As an example of high volatility, the model uses data from the German general election of 1998. The unification of two German states in 1990 caused the incorporation of around 15 million new voters from East Germany who had limited familiarity and no direct experience of the political culture in West Germany. Under these circumstances, voters were expected to show high volatility.

Knowledge spirals, situational leadership and informal learning applied on b-learning methodology

The methodology “b-learning” is a new teaching scenario and it requires the creation, adaptation and application of new learning tools searching the assimilation of new collaborative competences. In this context, it is well known the knowledge spirals, the situational leadership and the informal learning. The knowledge spirals is a basic concept of the knowledge procedure and they are based on that the knowledge increases when a cycle of 4 phases is repeated successively.1) The knowledge is created (for instance, to have an idea); 2) The knowledge is decoded into a format to be easily transmitted; 3) The knowledge is modified to be easily comprehensive and it is used; 4) New knowledge is created. This new knowledge improves the previous one (step 1). Each cycle shows a step of a spiral staircase: by going up the staircase, more knowledge is created. On the other hand, the situational leadership is based on that each person has a maturity degree to develop a specific task and this maturity increases with the experience. Therefore, the teacher (leader) has to adapt the teaching style to the student (subordinate) requirements and in this way, the professional and personal development of the student will increase quickly by improving the results and satisfaction. This educational strategy, finally combined with the informal learning, and in particular the zone of proximal development, and using a learning content management system own in our University, gets a successful and well-evaluated learning activity in Master subjects focused on the collaborative activity of preparation and oral exhibition of short and specific topics affine to these subjects. Therefore, the teacher has a relevant and consultant role of the selected topic and his function is to guide and supervise the work, incorporating many times the previous works done in other courses, as a research tutor or more experienced student. Then, in this work, we show the academic results, grade of interactivity developed in these collaborative tasks, statistics and the satisfaction grade shown by our post-graduate students.