Shallow Landslide Risk Assessment of the Westerly Bluffs of the 7.5-minute Freeland Quadrangle, Whidbey Island, Washington

Landslides often occur on slopes rendered unstable by underlying geology, geomorphology, hydrology, weather-climate, slope modifications, or deforestation. Unfortunately, humans commonly exacerbate such unstable conditions through careless or imprudent development practices. Due to local geology, geography, and climatic conditions, Puget Sound of western Washington State is especially landslide-prone. Despite this known issue, detailed analyses of landslide risks for specific communities are few. This study aims to classify areas of high landslide risk on the westerly bluffs of the 7.5 minute Freeland quadrangle based on a combined approach: mapping using LiDAR imagery and the Landform Remote Identification Model (LRIM) to identify landslides, and implementation of the Shallow Slope Stability Model (SHALSTAB) to establish a landslide exceedance probability. The objective is to produce a risk assessment from two shallow landslide scenarios: (1) minimum bluff setback and runout and (2) maximum bluff setback and runout. A simple risk equation that takes into account the probability of hazard occurrence with physical and economic vulnerability (van Westen, 2004) was applied to both scenarios. Results indicate an possible total loss as much as $32.6b from shallow landslides, given a setback of 12 m and a runout of 235 m.

Geology and landslide geomorphology of the Burpee Hills, Skagit County, Washington, USA

Landforms within the Skagit Valley record a complex history of land evolution from Late Pleistocene to the present. Late Pleistocene glacial deposits and subsequent incision by the Skagit River formed the Burpee Hills terrace. The Burpee Hills comprises an approximately 205-m-thick sequence of sediments, including glacio-lacustrine silts and clays, overlain by sandy advance outwash and capped by coarse till, creating a sediment-mantled landscape where mass wasting occurs in the form of debris flows and deep-seated landslides (Heller, 1980; Skagit County, 2014). Landslide probability and location are necessary metrics for informing citizens and policy makers of the frequency of natural hazards. Remote geomorphometric analysis of the site area using airborne LiDAR combined with field investigation provide the information to determine relative ages of landslide deposits, to classify geologic units involved, and to interpret the recent hillslope evolution. Thirty-two percent of the 28-km2 Burpee Hills landform has been mapped as landslide deposits. Eighty-five percent of the south-facing slope is mapped as landslide deposits. The mapped landslides occur predominantly within the advance outwash deposits (Qgav), this glacial unit has a slope angle ranging from 27 to 36 degrees. Quantifying surface roughness as a function of standard deviation of slope provides a relative age of landslide deposits, laying the groundwork for frequency analysis of landslides on the slopes of the Burpee Hills. The south-facing slopes are predominately affected by deep-seated landslides as a result of Skagit River erosion patterns within the floodplain. The slopes eroded at the toe by the Skagit River have the highest roughness coefficients, suggesting that areas with more frequent disturbance at the toe are more prone to sliding or remobilization. Future work including radiocarbon dating and hydrologic-cycle investigations will provide a more accurate timeline of the Burpee Hills hillslope evolution, and better information for emergency management and planners in the future.