Surface Elevation Change Processes in the Snohomish River Estuary, Washington

Estuaries provide crucial ecosystem functions and contain significant socio-economic value. Within Washington State, estuaries supply rearing habitat for juvenile salmon during their transition period from freshwater to open sea. In order to properly manage wetland resources and restore salmon habitat, the mechanisms through which estuaries evolve and adapt to pressures from climate change, most notably eustatic sea level rise, must be understood. Estuaries maintain elevation relative to sea level rise through vertical accretion of sediment. This report investigates the processes that contribute to local surface elevation change in the Snohomish Estuary, conveys preliminary surface elevation change results from RTK GPS monitoring, and describes how surface elevation change will be monitored with a network of RSET-MH’s. Part of the tidal wetlands within the Snohomish River Estuary were converted for agricultural and industrial purposes in the 1800’s, which resulted in subsidence of organic soils and loss of habitat. The Tulalip Tribes, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Northwest Indian Fisheries Commission (NWIFC), and the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) are conducting a large-scale restoration project to improve ecosystem health and restore juvenile salmon habitat. A study by Crooks et al. (2014) used 210Pb and carbon densities within sediment cores to estimate wetland re-building capacities, sediment accretion rates, and carbon sequestration potential within the Snohomish Estuary. This report uses the aforementioned study in combination with research on crustal movement, tidal patterns, sediment supply, and sea level rise predictions in the Puget Sound to project how surface elevation will change in the Snohomish Estuary with respect to sea level rise. Anthropogenic modification of the floodplain has reduced the quantity of vegetation and functional connectivity within the Snohomish Estuary. There have been losses up to 99% in vegetation coverage from historic extents within the estuary in both freshwater and mesohaline environments. Hydrographic monitoring conducted by NOAA and the Tulalip Tribe shows that 85% of the historic wetland area is not connected to the main stem of the Snohomish (Jason Hall 2014, unpublished data, NOAA). As vegetation colonization and functional connectivity of the floodplains of the Snohomish estuary is re-established through passive and active restoration, sediment transport and accretion is expected to increase. Under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) “medium- probability” scenario sea level is projected to rise at a rate of 4.28 mm/year in the Puget Sound. Sea level rise in the Snohomish Estuary will be exacerbated from crustal deformation from subsidence and post-glacial rebound, which are measured to be -1.4 mm/year and -0.02 mm/year, respectively. Sediment accretion rates calculated by Crooks et al. (2014) and RTK GPS monitoring of surface elevation change of the Marysville Mitigation site from 2011-2014 measured vertical accretion rates that range from -48-19 mm/year and have high spatial variability. Sediment supply is estimated at 490 thousand tons/year, which may be an under-estimate because of the exclusion of tidal transport in this value. The higher rates of sediment accretion measured in the Snohomish Estuary suggest that the Snohomish will likely match or exceed the pace of sea level rise under “medium-probability” projections. The network of RSET-MH instruments will track surface elevation change within the estuary, and provide a more robust dataset on rates of surface elevation change to quantify how vertical accretion and subsidence are contributing to surface elevation change on a landscape scale.

Channel Migration and Avulsion Hazards at Sunshine Point Campground, Mount Rainier National Park, Washington

In November 2006, the flood of record on the upper Nisqually River destroyed part of Sunshine Point Campground in Mount Rainier National Park, Washington. The Nisqually River migrated north and reoccupied five acres of its floodplain; Tahoma Creek partially avulsed into the west floodplain, topping banks of an undersized channel and flooding the campground. I assessed hazards to infrastructure at the old campground location, where the Park proposes to rebuild the remaining campground roads and sites. This assessment focuses on two major hazards: northward Nisqually River migration, which may reincorporate the floodplain into the river destroying infrastructure; and Tahoma Creek avulsions, which may flood the campgroud and deposit sediment burying campground infrastructure. I quantify northward migration by: estimating migration rates and changes to channel width; evaluating river occupation of the pre- and post-2006 campground; and estimating scour depths at revetments protecting the campground. I digitized the Nisqually River channels and channel centerlines from maps and images between 1955 and 2013 into a GIS, which I used to estimate migration rate and river width changes. Centerline migration rates average 9 ft/yr along the length of the Nisqually River study reach; at Sunshine Point lateral migration rates average 11 ft/yr. Maximum migration along the study reach was 19 ft/yr between 2006 and 2009. Greater than average migration rates and channel widths correspond to river confluences and include the Tahoma Creek confluence at Sunshine Point. To determine historical channel locations and the frequency that the river occupied different parts of its floodplain, I digitized the river from maps and images between 1903 and 2013. The Nisqually River flows through Sunshine Point Campground in eight out of 15 historical images. I assess scour at revetments protecting infrastructure from the Nisqually River during a 100-year recurrence interval flood using measured cross-sections. During a 100-year flood, the Nisqually River may scour up to 10 feet below the bed elevation. These scour depths can destabilize critical revetments leaving loose unconsolidated riverbanks exposed to Nisqually River flows. To determine the causes, locations, and frequency of flood hazards from Tahoma Creek avulsions, I field map avulsion channels and compare the results with imagery and channel width changes between 1955 and 2013. Mapped avulsion channels occur with swaths of dead vegetation or nascent vegetation; both dead and recent vegetation are visibly distinct from surrounding vegetation in aerial images. Times of changes to these vegetation anomalies correspond to increases in Tahoma Creek channel width. Avulsions have occurred at least three times in the study period: pre-1955, between 1979 and 1984, and in 2006. The 1984 and 2006 avulsions both occur after increases in Tahoma Creek reach averaged width. The NPS is considering two options to rebuild Sunshine Point Campground, both at the same location. The hazards posed by the Nisqually River and Tahoma Creek at Sunshine Point will affect both construction options equally. Migration hazards to the campground may be reduced by limiting the proposed campground infrastructure to an elevated ridge that has not been occupied by the Nisqually River since 1903. The hazards of damage from migration may be reduced by revetments, which were effective in preventing northward Nisqually River migration in 1959 and 1965. Tahoma Creek avulsions are related increased of Tahoma Creek reach averaged widths, which are near a 58- year maximum, and occurred during a 10-year flood in 1984. The campground may be as susceptible to flooding from avulsions during as little as a 10-year flood. A large avulsion may occur with the next significant Tahoma Creek width increase. Glacial retreat has been shown to increase debris flow activity and increase sediment delivery to Mount Rainier rivers. Increased sediment discharge has been correlated with aggradation, which will further encourage Tahoma Creek avulsions.

Migration and Residence Patterns of Salmonids in Puget Sound, Washington

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08

Effect of cross channel salinity imbalance due to freshwater influence in a narrow estuary

Senior thesis written for Oceanography 445